This Round of Refined Oil Retail Price Adjustment Faces Another Suspension

September 23, News

The current round of China's refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on September 23, and the retail price of refined oil for this round will not be adjusted. In 2025, the retail price of refined oil in China has experienced six increases, seven decreases, and five suspensions. During this cycle, the crude oil market mainly showed a fluctuating trend, with the positive value of the crude oil change rate continuously narrowing, leading to the "sixth" suspension in the adjustment of China's refined oil retail prices in 2025.

Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price trend was mainly volatile. As of the 22nd, the settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures was reported at $62.64 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was reported at $66.57 per barrel. During this adjustment cycle, the oil price trend first rose then fell. Geopolitical factors remain one of the key influences on the crude oil market. The resurgence of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East triggered a phase of rebound and rise in international crude oil prices. However, OPEC+ decided to continue increasing production in October, coupled with an increase in U.S. petroleum inventories, leading to high market expectations of oversupply pressure, which resulted in the international oil prices failing to sustain their upward momentum[2]. As of the 22nd, the change rate of the crude oil varieties over ten working days was 0.56%, corresponding to an adjustment of less than 50 CNY/ton for gasoline and diesel in China, which is below the adjustment threshold. Therefore, the retail price adjustment for refined oil products in this round has been suspended.

In terms of gasoline: Refineries have increased operating rates at some local refineries, leading to a slight rise in overall refinery utilization. Currently, average operating rates at Shandong-based local refineries stand around 54.5%, while major national refineries maintain an operational rate of approximately 86%. Meanwhile, supply of refined petroleum products from local refineries has seen a modest increase.

Recently, consumer activities such as travel have remained largely normal, yet the crude oil market has experienced significant volatility. As a result, the Chinese gasoline market is increasingly characterized by a cautious, wait-and-see attitude, further dampening trading activity. Additionally, the growing popularity of new-energy vehicles continues to temper demand expectations, contributing to weaker-than-anticipated market performance. Overall, gasoline prices are trending downward amid this volatile and uncertain environment.

On the diesel front: Recently, diesel supply has seen a slight increase, while demand has softened due to more frequent rainy and overcast weather, easing some of the immediate needs at the end-user level. Meanwhile, the agricultural autumn harvest is gradually picking up, leading to a modest rise in fuel consumption for farming activities compared to earlier periods. Meanwhile, demand remains steady in infrastructure and logistics sectors. As the northern fishing ban concludes in September, marine fuel consumption has also started to climb from previous levels. Overall, the diesel market is experiencing mostly volatile price movements.

Looking ahead: The peak season for traditional U.S. gasoline consumption is nearing its end, while supply-side risks remain unresolved. As a result, international oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, weakening cost support for China's refined oil market. In China, refinery operating rates are likely to continue rising in the near term, keeping the supply of refined products ample. Meanwhile, with no significant uptick in gasoline demand, gasoline prices are poised to trend downward amid volatile trading. On the other hand, diesel demand has shown some improvement compared to earlier periods, suggesting that diesel prices may experience more moderate, range-bound fluctuations in the coming weeks.