Supply and Demand Costs Resonate, Polyethylene Weakens in Short-term Fluctuations

April 22 News: Curve Comparison Chart

According to SpotCom data: The average price of LLDPE (7042) on April 15 was 8,580 CNY/ton, and the average price on April 21 was 8,283 CNY/ton, a decrease of 3.46%. The average price of LDPE (2426H) on April 15 was 11,700 CNY/ton, and the average price on April 21 was 11,350 CNY/ton, a decrease of 2.99%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on April 15 was 10,412 CNY/ton, and the average price on April 21 was 10,232 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.73%.

In mid to late April, the peak season for spring agricultural film use basically ends, and the operating rates of agricultural film factories in China decline, with only modest support from rigid demand. Orders in downstream industries such as packaging, injection molding, and pipe materials are generally low: downstream factories have no intention of restocking, and traders are selling at low prices to recover funds, directly leading to an accelerated decline in prices.

Maintenance support is waning: On the one hand, the market has already priced in expectations of plant restarts in May, so the positive impact of maintenance is now diminishing. On the other hand, companies continue to accumulate inventory, indicating that the reduction in supply can no longer keep pace with the decline in demand. The supply-demand contradiction continues to widen, putting downward pressure on prices.

Recently, the situation in the Middle East has been fluctuating, causing oil prices to experience extreme volatility with sharp rises and falls. The cost support is unstable, and the market lacks sufficient bullish sentiment.

In the short term, polyethylene is expected to continue fluctuating with a weak bias—easily falling but finding it hard to rise.