Change Rate Remains Positive, This Round of Refined Oil Retail Prices in China Is About to Increase

November 10, news

The current round of China's refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on November 10. The retail price of refined oil in this round is about to increase. In 2025, the retail price of refined oil has experienced six increases, nine decreases, and six suspensions. During this cycle, crude oil prices have fluctuated widely, but the change rate of crude oil has remained positive, leading to the "seventh" increase in the retail price of refined oil in 2025.

As the current pricing cycle began, international oil prices experienced sharp fluctuations. By the 7th, the December WTI crude oil futures contract settled at $59.75 per barrel, while the January Brent crude oil futures contract closed at $63.63 per barrel.

During this adjustment period, crude oil prices initially surged before reversing course later on. Early in the cycle, China and the U.S. held trade talks, boosting market risk appetite. Meanwhile, heightened tensions in South America temporarily supported oil price gains. However, as OPEC+ announced a new round of production increases later in the cycle, concerns about long-term supply overhang persisted. Additionally, regional tensions eased somewhat, but weakening U.S. demand—fueled by lingering uncertainties over U.S. tariffs that continue to weigh on global economic growth and demand expectations—triggered a downward spiral in international oil prices.

By the 10th, on the 10th working day, the change rate for crude oil benchmarks reached 3.01%. This translates to an increase of RMB 125 per ton for gasoline and RMB 120 per ton for diesel in China. In terms of retail pricing, this equates to an increase of approximately RMB 0.09 per liter for 89-octane gasoline, RMB 0.10 per liter for 92-octane gasoline, RMB 0.10 per liter for 95-octane gasoline, and RMB 0.10 per liter for No. 0 diesel.

On the gasoline front: Shandong's independent refineries are operating relatively steadily, with utilization rates remaining unchanged. On average, these local refineries in Shandong maintain an operating rate of around 54%, while China's major refinery operators continue to run at approximately 86% capacity. Meanwhile, supply of refined oil products from independent refineries has seen a slight increase. Recently, residential travel and other activities have largely returned to normal, but this has only deepened the cautious sentiment in China's gasoline market, further dampening trading activity. Adding to the challenges is the growing popularity of new-energy vehicles, which continues to keep demand below expectations. As a result, gasoline prices are experiencing volatile downward pressure.

In the diesel market: Recently, the supply of diesel in China has slightly increased, while demand is still mainly driven by essential needs. As the autumn harvest in agriculture is nearing its end, the consumption of agricultural fuel has increased compared to before. The demand from infrastructure and logistics sectors is moderate. Additionally, with the end of the fishing ban in northern China, the demand for marine fuel has also increased. Furthermore, the transition to -10# diesel in northern regions has led to a slight rise in the diesel market.

Looking ahead: The peak season for traditional U.S. gasoline consumption is nearing its end, while supply-side risks remain unresolved. As a result, international oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, providing limited cost support to China's refined oil market. In China, refinery operating rates have remained relatively stable in the near term, leading to an ample supply of refined products. Coupled with the lack of significant growth in gasoline demand, gasoline prices are likely to stay low. Meanwhile, diesel demand continues to offer some support, suggesting that diesel prices may see a modest uptick in the coming period.