MTBE Market Prices Surge and Then Fall

March 13 news

According to the commodity market analysis system, from March 6 to 13, the price of MTBE rose and then fell from 5,733 CNY/ton to 6,316 CNY/ton. During the period, the price increased by 10.17%, with the maximum fluctuation being 43.02%, a month-on-month increase of 25.25%, and a year-on-year increase of 9.14%. The Chinese MTBE market showed a pattern of rapid increases followed by rapid decreases, with fluctuations in international crude oil prices being the most direct influencing factor. At the beginning of the week, MTBE showed a significant upward trend, with the price increase far exceeding expectations. However, as the G7 discussed the release of strategic reserves and the U.S. hinted that the conflict might end soon, international crude oil prices fell, and given that the rise in MTBE prices already included a significant premium, the market price quickly dropped. During the price decline, there was a strong bearish sentiment.

MTBE China Production Price Average Trend Chart:

Cost Perspective: Regarding crude oil, international oil prices have risen sharply, primarily driven by the ongoing conflict among the United States, Israel, and Iran, which has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and forced several Middle Eastern oil-producing countries to cut production, thereby supporting upward price trends. As of March 12, the settlement price for the May Brent crude oil futures contract was reported at $100.46 per barrel.

Demand Side: On the downstream gasoline front, international crude oil futures prices surged and then fell back, prompting refineries to promptly adjust their pricing in line with these fluctuations, thereby causing regional gasoline prices to experience sharp ups and downs. Coupled with the slow recovery in terminal demand at this stage and the lack of significant acceleration in the pace of destocking social inventories, refineries as a whole faced sluggish sales throughout the week, leading to a general rise in inventory levels. The demand side for MTBE was weighed down by predominantly bearish factors.

Supply side: The Haierxi facility in Henan has started operations, with the facility utilization rate increasing, which may lead to an increase in resource supply. At the same time, Shenchí Chemical has conducted two auctions, leading to an increase in supply. The MTBE supply side is affected by bearish factors.

As of March 13, statistics on MTBE factory prices from selected production enterprises:

As of the close on March 5, the Asian MTBE market closed at a price that was up by $116.28 per ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore prices ranging from $1,076.49 to $1,078.49 per ton. In the European MTBE market, closing prices rose by $51 per ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB ARA prices ranging from $1,071.49 to $1,071.99 per ton. In the U.S. MTBE market, closing prices increased by $77.49 per ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Gulf offshore prices ranging from $1,010.81 to $1,011.17 per ton (285.41 to 285.51 cents per gallon).

Future Market Prediction With raw material prices remaining high, there is ample cost support. MTBE analysts believe that the MTBE market is entering a consolidation phase.