Methanol Market Prices Show a Clear Upward Trend

March 13th, according to reports

According to the commodity market analysis system, from March 6 to March 13 (up to 15:00), the quotation for methanol in the East China port of the Chinese market rose from 2,595 CNY/ton to around 2,832 CNY/ton, with a price increase of 9.15% during the period, up 28.65% month-over-month, and up 7.77% year-over-year. The trading in the Chinese methanol market is still mainly influenced by geopolitical factors, with the sentiment in the futures market gradually spreading to the spot market. Additionally, the continuous destocking by enterprises, the rigid demand for external procurement of olefins in some areas, and the gradual recovery of downstream demand have all supported the significant rise in methanol prices.

As of the close on March 13, the methanol futures closing price on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rose. The main methanol futures contract 2605 opened at 2754 CNY/ton, with a high of 2887 CNY/ton, a low of 2723 CNY/ton, and closed at 2805 CNY/ton, up 32 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price, an increase of 1.15%. The volume was 2,171,545, open interest was 584,205, and the daily increase in open interest was 13,631.

Methanol Spot vs Futures Comparison Chart:

As of March 13, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions of China:

Cost perspective, as coal downstream enterprises in China gradually resume work and production, the demand expectation has increased, and the market price is mainly stable. The impact on the cost perspective is mixed.

Comparison Chart of Coal/Bituminous Coal (Upstream Raw Material) and Methanol Price Trends:

Demand Side: From the downstream perspective, prices of various downstream products have risen in tandem with the sharp increase in the price of raw material methanol. Currently, profit margins are quite substantial, with the MTO, glacial acetic acid, and methane chlorides industries experiencing the most significant price increases. Most downstream products are influenced by methanol prices, and the demand side for methanol is leaning toward positive factors.

Methanol-Acetic Acid (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Methanol-MTBE (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Supply side, the maintenance of the China Coal plant has been extended; Guangju New Materials and Inner Mongolia Black Cat facilities have resumed operations. However, the overall loss in production is greater than the recovery, leading to a decrease in output and a decline in the capacity utilization rate. Recently, more methanol plants are planning to resume operations, while the number of plants undergoing maintenance or reducing production is decreasing, which may lead to an increase in overall market supply. The supply side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the international market, as of the close on March 12, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at USD 494–496 per ton, up USD 39.5 per ton. The FOB U.S. Gulf methanol market closed at 106–108 cents per gallon, up 2 cents per gallon; and the European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at EUR 380–382 per ton, up EUR 13 per ton.

Looking ahead, import volumes are expected to decline in the near term, and upstream inventory destocking is underway; however, the overall pace of inventory reduction has been weaker than anticipated. Overall, methanol analysts forecast that China’s spot methanol market will likely remain relatively strong and consolidate.