Supply Increase Released, October Acrylonitrile Prices Fall to New Lows for the Year in China

November 3rd, according to reports

Since mid-September, the market price of acrylonitrile in China has continued to decline. Entering October, it further fell to below 7,900 CNY/ton, reaching a new low for the year and also the lowest level since July 2023. The main ex-tank self-pickup price at East China ports is around 7,850 CNY/ton, a decrease of 300 CNY/ton from the beginning of the month, and a 34% decrease compared to the highest value of 11,900 CNY/ton in February this year. In the Shandong market, the short-distance delivery price is 7,850 CNY/ton, a 33.5% decrease compared to the highest value of 11,800 CNY/ton in February this year.

Supply-demand contradiction worsening remains the main cause

Looking back at historical data, since the acrylonitrile industry in China entered a period of oversupply in 2022, market prices generally reached their lowest levels of the year during the traditional low season in July and August. The market then typically showed an upward trend in the fourth quarter. However, this year's market performance has been different. Since the beginning of 2025, the market surged significantly in the first quarter due to supply uncertainties. After that, prices remained at a relatively low level, fluctuating between 8,000-8,500 CNY/ton, and further declined to below 8,000 CNY/ton in the fourth quarter.

On one hand, 2025 marks a new round of concentrated capacity expansion following 2022. So far, 1,050,000 tons of new capacity have been successfully added, with most of the new supply gradually released in the second half of the year. On the other hand, downstream industries have deviated from their traditional seasonal production patterns due to various factors such as price fluctuations of upstream products, external environmental volatility, and changes in their own supply and demand. Particularly, the "Golden September, Silver October" period this year was rather subdued, far from the consumption growth seen in previous years.

Specific to the market in the fourth quarter of this year, as propylene nitrile maintenance facilities gradually resumed operations in October, the industry's capacity utilization rate steadily increased to nearly 80%, reaching the highest level since March of this year. This is also significantly higher than the operating rate of the same period last year. Due to the production capacity base having sharply increased to 5.421 million tons per year, the supply volume has further significantly increased. It is estimated that the total propylene nitrile production in China in October exceeded 400,000 tons, the highest monthly production on record. Although consumption also showed growth, it was far less than the increase in supply. Therefore, the supply-demand gap in China reached a high level of 64,000 tons in October. There was also significant pressure on contract and spot sales during the month, leading suppliers to actively reduce prices to sell off inventory.

However, as acrylonitrile prices have dropped to historically low levels, buyer confidence has begun to pick up. This is partly driven by concerns that uncertainties in acrylonitrile supply could trigger a price rebound. As a result, despite no significant expectations of increased consumption, downstream users are showing a strong willingness to build up their inventories.

It is understood that the main acrylonitrile producers in China have smoothly scheduled their contract orders for November, and the sales pressure has already been alleviated. However, apart from a minor maintenance plan for one of Korail's production lines, and the postponement of the restart of Fushun Petrochemical's 92,000 tons/year plant to early November, there are no clear plans for production cuts for the remaining acrylonitrile plants. Therefore, it is estimated that the supply volume for November and December will still remain at a high level, which also means that the situation of industry oversupply is unlikely to improve.

Market Forecast: Overall, the acrylonitrile industry is expected to continue facing supply-demand contradictions in November. While export negotiations have reportedly shown growing deal volumes, the gap between supply and demand remains challenging to close. Additionally, in the short term, acrylonitrile inventories are shifting downstream, but long-term inventory accumulation pressures persist without significant relief. Meanwhile, upstream propylene prices are likely to fluctuate in the near term within the 5,900–6,100 CNY/ton range, though support from raw material costs is also beginning to weaken. As a result, the acrylonitrile market is anticipated to face ongoing resistance to further upward momentum, with prices likely to remain mildly volatile in the short term. Without meaningful improvements in supply and demand conditions over the longer term, there’s a risk that prices could decline again.