June 15th News
June phthalate DOP prices in China first rose and then fell
According to the commodity market analysis system, as of June 15, the DOP price was 9234.17 CNY/ton, compared to 9142.50 CNY/ton on June 1, with a price increase of 1.00%. In June, the overall DOP market in China exhibited a "narrow fluctuation, weak upward momentum" characteristic. Although the price level slightly increased during the month, the continuous pressure of supply and demand imbalance limited the room for price increases. With the ceasefire between the United States and Iran, the "geopolitical risk premium" is rapidly fading, and the market logic will shift back from cost-driven to being dominated by the fundamentals of supply and demand.
Cost End: The Support from Raw Materials Weakens
The price of raw material isooctanol has stopped rising and is now falling.
According to the commodity market analysis system, as of June 15, the price of isooctanol was 8,116.67 CNY/ton, which first increased and then decreased compared to the price of 7,966.67 CNY/ton on June 1, with a price increase of 1.88%; and it also increased from the price of 6,666.67 CNY/ton on February 28, with a price increase of 21.75%. In terms of costs, the ceasefire between the United States and Iran led to a decrease in crude oil prices, dragging down the price of propylene downstream, thus reducing costs, and the cost support for isooctanol decreased; in terms of supply and demand, with new production capacities in 2026 being commissioned one after another, there is an oversupply of isooctanol, coupled with weak demand for isooctanol, the pressure for the price of isooctanol to fall has increased, and so has the pressure for DOP to fall.
Phthalic anhydride market in China is experiencing a weak and stable trend.
According to the commodity market analysis system, as of June 15, the price of ortho-xylene phthalic anhydride in China was 8,476.67 CNY/ton, a decline from the price of 8,683.33 CNY/ton on June 1, with a price decrease of 2.38%. With the ceasefire between the United States and Iran, the core logic of the phthalic anhydride market has shifted from "geopolitical risk premium" to "fundamental rebalancing." On the cost side, the expectation of a fall in crude oil prices will dominate market sentiment, and there is room for further downward adjustment in the price of ortho-xylene, which will likely lead to a downward trend in ortho-xylene phthalic anhydride. On the demand side, the traditional low season combined with weak terminal demand means that the demand for phthalic anhydride is weak, increasing the pressure for its price to fall.
June DOP Market Supply and Demand Analysis
Supply side: Overall supply exceeds demand.
In June, the capacity utilization rate of the DOP industry in China was 52%, with the main factories operating at a basically stable level; the utilization rate stabilized from the low point in May, and the overall spot supply in the market was not tight. However, the purchasing demand was too weak, and the contradiction of "oversupply" in the market could not be effectively alleviated.
Demand Side: Persistent Weakness
Demand-side weakness is the core factor constraining the upward trend in the market. End-users generally lack confidence in future prospects, and their purchasing strategies are extremely cautious, limited to small orders for essential needs only. They are particularly averse to high-priced supplies, resulting in limited overall market inquiries and a subdued trading atmosphere in China.
Market Overview and Future Expectations
The plasticizer product data analyst believes that the price of raw material octanol has begun to show signs of easing and declining, which to some extent has alleviated cost pressure on DOP. Moreover, with the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran and the subsequent drop in crude oil prices, new downward price pressures have emerged. Given that downstream demand is unlikely to see any substantial improvement in the short term, the DOP market is expected to continue its weak and consolidating trend, with the price center likely to shift further downward slightly. The recovery of industry profits also faces considerable uncertainty.
