June 21st, according to reports
Costs have weakened significantly, and the PTA market in China has seen a downward shift in its focus this week (June 15-21). According to the commodity market analysis system, as of June 21, the average price of PTA spot market in the East China region was 6,116 CNY/ton, a decrease of 5.51% from the beginning of the week.
International oil prices are trending downward. As of the 17th, the settlement price for the July WTI crude oil futures contract in the U.S. was $76.79 per barrel, while the settlement price for the August Brent crude oil futures contract was $79.55 per barrel. With ongoing developments in U.S.-Iran reconciliation and expectations of resumed navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, geopolitical risk premiums are set to continue easing. Consequently, oil prices are likely to remain volatile and generally weak, as the market continues to balance the pace of reopening shipping lanes against the timing of increased crude oil supply.
On the supply side, Dushan Energy’s No. 1 2.5-million-ton unit resumed operations on June 15 this week, bringing the industry’s operating rate to around 87%. Dongying Weilian’s 2.5-million-ton unit is scheduled to shut down by the end of June, and Yizheng Chemical Fiber is expected to undergo maintenance due to equipment failures, putting downward pressure on its own supply. Meanwhile, downstream polyester plants that have been undergoing maintenance are expected to resume operations soon. As a result, industrial inventories continue to decline, providing support for market prices.
The leading downstream filament manufacturers have continued their earlier coordinated production cuts, and currently, the operating rate for directly spun filaments has dropped to a new low of 73% for this time of year. As of now, polyester plants—including Shenghong and Hanjiang—are planning to restart certain units next week; there are no clear indications yet of any planned shutdowns. Consequently, we expect China’s polyester industry supply to see a slight increase next week. At the terminal end, downstream operating rates have shown a modest rebound, and there is anticipation that inventories may be proactively replenished in the coming period as the season progresses.
Analysts believe that currently, PTA is experiencing weakening costs, a slow recovery in supply, and no significant improvement in demand. It is expected that the PTA market trend in China will remain relatively weak in the short term.
Additionally, according to Xianhuotong, the 10-day moving average has crossed below the 20-day moving average, and the difference between the two averages continues to widen in a negative direction. The 10-day and 20-day moving averages are diverging further, indicating that the PTA market is entering a downward channel.
Combining the 5-level position, the current price is in a high range over the past year in China, and one needs to be cautious of the short-term downward risk.
