China’s EVA Market to Experience Volatile Decline in 2025, with Supply Intensifying in 2026 and Demand Remaining Stable but Weak

January 4th News

In 2025, EVA production capacity in China expanded, demand was stable but slightly weak, and prices fluctuated widely before declining.

China’s EVA production capacity will continue to expand in 2025, ensuring ample supply.

In 2025, China's EVA new production capacity continues to be added, reaching a total capacity of 3,800,000 tons/year by the end of the year. Among these, Hongjing's two new 200,000-ton capacities will be commissioned in February and May 2025, respectively. Lianhong New Material's 200,000-ton/year facility will start mass production in October 2025, and Zhejiang Petrochemical's 300,000-ton/year facility will begin trial production in December 2025. Overall, in 2025, there will be a relative surplus of general-purpose EVA materials, while photovoltaic grade (VA≥28%) will still be in short supply.

The EVA market demand in 2025 will show a trend of strong performance in the first half and weakening in the second half.

In 2025, the EVA demand in China was significantly affected by policy rumors, overseas trade, and downstream operations, showing notable fluctuations.

As the largest demand sector for EVA, the photovoltaic industry consumed approximately 50%-60% of China's EVA in 2025. Its demand is significantly influenced by policy expectations, and photovoltaic demand is the core driver of the EVA industry. From January to October 2025, China's photovoltaic installation capacity reached 252.87GW, a year-on-year increase of 39.5%. Among this, the new installations from January to May were 198GW, a year-on-year increase of 150%, which significantly boosted the EVA market in the first half of the year.

In 2025, EVAcost support will be stronger in the early stage and weaker in the later stage.

In 2025, the price of ethylene, the raw material for EVA, fluctuated and declined, while the price of vinyl acetate, another raw material, experienced significant fluctuations. In the first quarter, the high price of ethylene and the increase in the price of vinyl acetate provided strong cost support for EVA; in the second quarter, as the prices of both ethylene and vinyl acetate weakened and decreased, the cost support for EVA also weakened; in the third quarter, the price of ethylene continued to fall, and after a short-term rise, the price of vinyl acetate also fell, further weakening the cost support for EVA; in the fourth quarter, with the decline in the price of ethylene and the increase in the price of vinyl acetate, there was a certain level of cost support for EVA.

In 2025, the EVA market in China showed a wide range of fluctuations in the early part of the year and a weak decline at the end of the year.

In 2025, EVA prices showed a volatile downward trend. From January to March, following the Spring Festival, raw material prices rose, downstream foam production increased, the rush installation of photovoltaic systems intensified, and EVA producers’ plant maintenance led to low inventory levels, causing EVA prices to surge sharply to a year-high of 11,566 CNY/ton. From April to July, as the downstream foam industry entered its traditional off-season and the rush installation of photovoltaic systems came to an end, raw material prices—which had been high earlier—began to fall. Coupled with the commissioning of new production capacity, EVA prices continued to decline. In early August to September, as photovoltaic inventories were reduced and raw material prices provided some support, EVA prices rebounded slightly to 11,400 CNY/ton. From October to December, due to oversupply of photovoltaic materials, pressure from newly commissioned capacity, and sustained high operating rates, EVA prices fell back to 9,766 CNY/ton.

In 2026, EVA will show an intensification of oversupply and a trend of low-price fluctuations in China.

In 2026, the new EVA production capacity will be approximately 1.69 million tons per year, with a surplus of general-purpose materials and a structural shortage of photovoltaic-grade materials. In 2026, China's new EVA production capacity is expected to be approximately 1.69 million tons per year, mainly concentrated in East China, Northwest China, and South China, focusing on photovoltaic-grade and foam-grade materials.

In 2026, China's new EVA production capacity will reach [number] ten thousand tons.

2026: China’s demand for EVA will be the primary driver, supported by concurrent export demand.

In 2026, the demand for photovoltaics will still dominate, but the growth rate may narrow. Against the backdrop of existing policies and a high base, there will be significant pressure on new installations in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period last year. In 2026, it is highly likely that China's installed capacity will experience its first negative growth in recent years. However, with the ongoing efforts to counter internal competition in the supply side and the gradual clarification of the rules for the operation of the electricity market, the exploration and development of new models such as direct green power connection, source-grid-load-storage integration, and green power parks, the market demand in China is still expected to receive some support.

Despite the relatively weak demand for foamed EVA in 2025, the long-term potential comes from the expansion of high-end shoe materials, healthy living, new energy vehicle interiors, and packaging. The industry supports overall demand by developing high-performance products through technological upgrades, such as EVA with better weather resistance for photovoltaic films.

Although EVA still maintained a net import trend in 2025, with 643,800 tons of EVA imported and 279,200 tons exported from January to November 2025, in recent years, the Chinese EVA market has shown a continuous decline in imports and a continuous increase in exports. In 2026, driven by the procurement from photovoltaic module factories in Southeast Asia and India, China's EVA exports are expected to continue to rise.

In 2026, the cost of EVA in China may show a stable trend in the first half and a weaker trend in the second half.

On one hand, there are still plans for new ethylene production capacity in China. Data shows that the 1.2 million tons/year Phase II ethylene project of Dushanzi Petrochemical in Xinjiang is scheduled to start commissioning in September 2026. New vinyl acetate facilities are expected to be commissioned in a concentrated manner between 2027 and 2028. Overall, the supply of EVA raw materials is in a relatively loose state. On the other hand, due to the risk of a global economic downturn, crude oil prices are generally at a low level. In general, the cost center of EVA in 2026 will be lower than in 2025 due to fluctuations in raw material prices.

Overall, it is expected that the EVA price in 2026 will be stable in the early part of the year, weaken in the middle of the year, and show a slight rebound at the end of the year. The price of foaming EVA will fluctuate between 9,800 to 11,500 CNY per ton, while the price of photovoltaic EVA will experience larger fluctuations due to policy disturbances.