September 18th News
According to the commodity market analysis system, the price of ethanol in China has been adjusted to 5570 CNY/ton, with a price increase of 1.40% since September, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.11%. The price of ethanol in China is relatively strong, with a decrease in supply, tight market availability, high transaction premiums at major factories, and an increase in downstream demand, all contributing to a significant price increase for ethanol.
Cost Perspective: From the cost perspective, the average national price of corn rose slightly, with regional price trends varying. Corn prices in Northeast China remained stable, while corn prices in Henan declined. The impact on ethanol costs is mixed, with both positive and negative effects.
Supply side, From the supply perspective, an ethanol plant with an annual processing capacity of 4.24 million tons was shut down last month. In August, China's ethanol production was 835,000 tons, an increase of 28,700 tons from the previous month, with a price decrease of 3.56%. The cumulative production from January to August 2026 was 7.0051 million tons. The impact on the ethanol supply side is mixed.
Demand Side: On the downstream side, pre-holiday end-user industries—such as fine chemicals, solvents, and fuel blending—have collectively begun stock-up operations, resulting in a concentrated release of rigid inventory demand. This has steadily boosted market transaction activity. During this period, China’s total demand reached 182,200 tons, while the supply-demand gap remained persistently negative, indicating a temporary situation of supply falling short of demand. The demand for ethanol is being supported by favorable factors.
Market Outlook: Before the holiday, the ethanol market is supported by three positive factors—low inventory levels, urgent restocking needs, and rising logistics costs—leading to a continued volatile trading pattern at high levels for spot prices. As the concentrated pre-holiday stocking spree comes to an end and downstream rigid demand procurement slows down, coupled with the gradual recovery of logistics capacity during the holiday period and the resulting decline in transportation costs, ethanol analysts expect the ethanol market to mainly experience fluctuating and consolidating price movements.
