September 18th, news:
According to the commodity market analysis system, from September 11 to 18, the price of MTBE fell from 8,100 CNY/ton to 7,925 CNY/ton, with a price decrease of 2.16% during the period, an increase of 16.71% month-over-month, and an increase of 43.07% year-over-year. After the MTBE market prices in China reached a high, there was increased resistance from end-users, leading manufacturers to focus on sales volume by offering discounts. After the price dropped, it stimulated buyers' purchasing enthusiasm. Coupled with the recovery of the gasoline market, manufacturers once again actively pushed for price increases.
MTBE China production price average trend chart:
Cost Perspective: Regarding crude oil, international crude oil prices have slightly declined as multiple parties have made efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East, while the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate hikes have boosted the U.S. dollar exchange rate, weakening support from market news.
Demand Side: On the downstream side, in terms of gasoline, the volatile high prices of crude oil are favorable for cost reduction. Meanwhile, with the approaching Double Festival period, midstream and downstream players are stepping up their inventory preparations. Consequently, as refinery shipments improve, they will inevitably raise prices again. We expect gasoline prices to first decline and then rise. The demand for MTBE is also influenced by relatively positive factors.
Supply side: With the operation of Lihuayi's conventional and isomerization units, and the shutdown of Helisi's unit, along with a decrease in the operating load of some manufacturers, the overall facility utilization rate has fallen. The MTBE supply side is influenced by positive factors.
As of September 18, statistics on MTBE factory prices from selected production enterprises:
| Enterprise | Unit | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Chengtai Chemical | 200,000 tons/year isomerization unit shut down | 7,850 CNY/ton |
| Shida Shenghua | 200,000 tons/year isomerization unit operating steadily, normal shipments | 7,950 CNY/ton |
| Shenchi Chemical | 400,000 tons/year mixed alkane dehydrogenation plant co-producing 350,000 tons of MTBE | / CNY/ton |
| Lihua Yi | Isomerization and isobutane dehydrogenation units operating normally | 7,850 CNY/ton |
| Dongming Petrochemical | 350,000 tons/year mixed alkane dehydrogenation unit operating steadily, producing 1,000 tons per day | 8,100 CNY/ton |
As of the close on September 17, the Asian MTBE market closed at a price that was $17.36 per ton lower than the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore at $1,155.55–$1,157.55 per ton. The European MTBE market closed at a price that was $2 per ton lower than the previous trading day, with FOB ARA at $1,598.74–$1,599.24 per ton. The U.S. MTBE market closed at a price that was $7.9 per ton higher than the previous trading day, with FOB Gulf offshore prices at $1,441.37–$1,441.73 per ton ($406.98–$407.08 per gallon).
| Region | Country | Closing Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | FOB Singapore | USD 1,155.55–1,157.55 per ton | -USD 17.36 per ton |
| Europe | FOB ARA | USD 1,598.74–1,599.24 per ton | -USD 2 per ton |
| United States | FOB Gulf | USD 1,441.37–1,441.73 per ton | +USD 7.9 per ton |
Market Outlook: Cost pressures remain, and with the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday approaching, downstream players have moderate inventory-replenishment needs. As a result, transaction volumes are expected to continue their positive momentum. MTBE analysts believe that the MTBE market will likely maintain its strong performance.
