Methanol market trend fluctuates and rises

January 23rd News

According to the commodity market analysis system, from January 19 to 23 (up to 15:00), the quotation for methanol in the East China port of the Chinese market rose from 2,218 CNY/ton to around 2,283 CNY/ton, with a price increase of 2.93% during the period, up 6.16% month-over-month, and down 13.18% year-over-year. The methanol market at the port, influenced by multiple factors such as high methanol inventory at the port, weak downstream apparent demand, expectations of reduced imports, and fluctuations in macroeconomic sentiment, showed a trend of fluctuating consolidation.

As of the close on January 23, the methanol futures closing price on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rose. The main methanol futures contract 2605 opened at 2251 CNY/ton, with a high of 2303 CNY/ton, a low of 2246 CNY/ton, and closed at 2298 CNY/ton, up 66 yuan or 2.96% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 1,349,180 lots, the open interest was 806,994 lots, and the daily change in open interest was -10,177 lots.

Methanol Spot vs Futures Comparison Chart:

As of January 23, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions of China:

Cost Side: Coal purchasing activity remains relatively weak, putting downward pressure on coal prices and weakening the support for methanol costs. The cost side of methanol is thus weighed down by bearish factors.

Coal/Thermal Coal (Upstream Raw Material) - Methanol Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Demand Side: Port-based olefin demand has declined, leading to a reduction in inventories. However, apparent demand remains weak, directly putting downward pressure on prices. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and methanol demand is weighed down by bearish factors.

Methanol-Acetic Acid (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Methanol-MTBE (downstream product) price trend comparison chart:

Supply side, plant maintenance at Shanxi Yaxin, Shanxi Zhongxin, and Pucheng Clean Energy; reduction in production at Wangcang Hezhong Chemical and Shenhua Xilaifeng facilities; resumption of operations at Xinxiang Zhongxin and Shanxi Yaxin facilities. Overall, the amount of lost production exceeded the amount recovered, leading to a decrease in output and a decline in the capacity utilization rate. The supply side for methanol is influenced by positive factors.

On the international market, as of the close on January 22, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at USD 321.5–322.5 per ton. The FOB U.S. Gulf methanol market closed at 94.5–95.5 cents per gallon, up 3 cents per gallon; the European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at EUR 269.5–270.5 per ton, up EUR 4 per ton.

Looking ahead, with ample spot supply, high inventories at mid- and downstream stages, and the continued presence of seasonal demand weakness—among other headwinds—the trend in the market before the holiday will likely see companies actively cutting prices to clear their stocks, keeping the market on a downward trajectory toward bottoming out. Methanol analysts forecast that China’s methanol spot market will remain characterized by consolidation and volatile fluctuations.