This week, caustic soda prices showed a weak trend (1.12-1.16)

January 16th, News

I. Price Trends

According to the commodity analysis system, the caustic soda prices showed a weak trend this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price was 723 CNY/ton, and by the end of the week, it had decreased to 694 CNY/ton, a drop of 4.41%, and a decrease of 26.72% compared to the same period last year. On January 15th, the chemical index was at 780 points, up 2 points from the previous day, down 44.29% from the highest point of 1400 points (on October 23, 2021), and up 30.43% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011, to the present.)

II. Market Analysis

According to the commodity analysis system, the caustic soda prices in China have been weak this week. In Shandong, the mainstream market price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda is around 640-720 CNY/ton. In Jiangsu, the caustic soda prices are stable, with the mainstream market price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda around 740-820 CNY/ton. In Inner Mongolia, the caustic soda prices are consolidating, with the mainstream market price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda (converted to 100%) around 2100-2200 CNY/ton. The supply of caustic soda in China remains loose this week, and inventory clearance by enterprises is not significant. The recent market entry enthusiasm for downstream alumina is average, and enterprise inventories are relatively sufficient. The market remains in a stalemate, with caustic soda being purchased on a need basis. It is expected that the alumina market will show a weak and volatile trend in the later period.

Analysts believe that the caustic soda prices have been weak recently, and this week's trend is also weak. Recently, downstream sectors in China have mostly purchased according to demand. There are no positive supports for the Shandong market next week, and demand has not shown any substantial improvement. Considering the supply and demand dynamics, it is expected that caustic soda will continue to maintain a weak and volatile trend. The specific situation will depend on the downstream market demand.