Strong Supply and Demand Driving Lithium Carbonate Price Fluctuations

March 17th, news:

According to the commodity market analysis system: Recently, the price of lithium carbonate has shown a fluctuating trend. As of March 17, the benchmark price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 155,000 CNY per ton, a decrease of 3.12% compared to the same period last week (March 10), an increase of 6.9% month-over-month, and an increase of 10.3% year-over-year.

Inventory End: Low Inventory Supports Firm Prices

Industry inventories remain persistently low, and the trend of destocking is clearly evident. Statistical data show that spot lithium carbonate inventories have fallen to a phased low; in particular, smelters’ inventories have hit their lowest level in nearly three years, and downstream stockpiles are also at relatively low levels. This tight inventory situation significantly narrows the room for further price declines, providing strong support for lithium prices.

Supply Side: China Faces Frequent External Disruptions

The impact of the Spring Festival holiday is gradually fading, and Chinese lithium salt companies have generally resumed production, with a significant increase in overall output in the industry.

However, the industry’s supply elasticity remains constrained by multiple factors: On the one hand, the resumption of production at China’s core lithium resources has fallen short of expectations; on the other hand, sudden policy shifts in key overseas lithium-resource countries have significantly disrupted the supply chain. Recently, this country announced a temporary halt to all exports of lithium concentrate, aiming to promote local processing of lithium resources. Although exports of lithium concentrate from other major exporting countries to China have increased month-on-month, partially offsetting the supply gap, the vulnerability of the global lithium supply chain has become even more apparent.

Demand Side: Energy Storage Becomes the Core Growth Engine for Demand

Downstream sectors have entered the traditional production peak season, with impressive production scheduling data. On March 16, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the national economic operation for January-February 2026. It was stated that the production of lithium-ion batteries for energy storage increased by 84% in January-February. The demand for energy storage is growing rapidly. Although the sales of new energy vehicles fluctuated due to seasonal factors in the earlier period, the production scheduling of power batteries has shown a clear seasonal recovery, providing solid support for overall demand.

Lithium carbonate data analysts believe that the explosive growth in energy storage demand has become a certain trend, while global lithium resource supply continues to be constrained by multiple factors such as geopolitics, environmental protection, and industrial policies. The lithium carbonate market is gradually shifting from a previously loose situation to a medium- to long-term tight balance, with the price center receiving strong support. Specific attention still needs to be paid to changes in market supply and demand.