September 1st, according to the news,
According to the commodity market analysis system: In August, the Chinese lithium carbonate market experienced a strong rebound, with prices continuously rising from 142,000 CNY per ton at the beginning of the month to 156,000 CNY per ton by the end of the month, resulting in a price increase of nearly 10% within the month.
Phased contraction on the supply side boosts prices.
The core driver of the lithium price rebound in August came from a phased contraction in supply. During the summer, the industry underwent concentrated maintenance, with leading enterprises in the three major production areas of Jiangxi, Sichuan, and Qinghai halting operations. This, combined with salt lake lithium extraction plant maintenance and insufficient arrivals of overseas lithium concentrate, led to a significant reduction in effective supply in China. Overall, in July, the production of lithium carbonate saw its first month-on-month decline of the year, and the maintenance in August further affected nearly 10,000 tons of production. The effective monthly supply decreased by nearly 10%, and some of the maintenance capacity extended into September, clearly indicating a short-term rigid supply contraction.
The steady recovery of demand in China provides solid support for the price increase.
August power battery company production data exceeded expectations, achieving steady month-on-month growth. Coupled with the continuous release of demand in the energy storage industry, the dual demands downstream have simultaneously recovered, driving a continuous reduction in market inventory. During the month, social inventories of lithium carbonate continued to decline, with a significant weekly reduction. The enthusiasm for terminal stockpiling has increased, and traditional "Golden September Silver October" pre-season stockpiling has begun, effectively digesting existing market resources and completely reversing the previous supply-demand surplus situation. Under the mismatch of supply and demand, the market gradually formed a supply gap, laying a fundamental foundation for the continuous price increase in August.
Lithium carbonate prices in September are expected to continue the peak season trend in China.
Looking ahead to the price trend of lithium carbonate in September, the market as a whole will likely remain volatile yet generally strong, with upward momentum remaining moderate. The peak-season rally will continue to unfold, though the pace of price increases will slow somewhat. On the supply side, some production capacity that underwent maintenance in September has yet to fully resume operations, meaning the fundamental condition of short-term supply contraction persists. Coupled with the tight situation regarding the arrival of overseas lithium ore shipments, which is unlikely to ease quickly, near-term supply remains relatively tight. However, as brine-based lithium extraction facilities gradually resume work, expectations for a recovery in market supply are rising, and this will continue to cap the upside potential for lithium prices. On the demand side, we’re entering the traditional peak season, during which downstream cathode material and battery companies are expected to keep ramping up their production schedules. Terminal inventory replenishment demand will intensify, and the trend of inventory depletion is likely to persist, further widening the supply-demand gap and providing key support for lithium prices. Overall, in September, the core operating range for lithium carbonate prices will remain high and volatile, with the center of gravity steadily shifting upward. Going forward, the key areas to watch include the pace at which brine production resumes, the progress of resuming lithium ore imports, and the rate at which warehouse receipts accumulate amid high prices. Whether demand can sustainably absorb changes in supply will be the critical factor determining whether lithium prices can break new highs in late September.
