China's EVA Market Prices Surge Significantly

March 17th, News

Recently (March 1-17), the EVA market in China has seen a significant increase. According to the commodity market analysis system, as of March 17, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 11,716 CNY per ton, an increase of 15.44% from 10,150 CNY per ton at the beginning of the month.

In early March, the escalation of U.S.-Iran conflicts raised concerns about shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, causing international crude oil prices to surge by over 13% in a single day. Brent crude oil prices even exceeded $100 per barrel, directly driving up the raw material costs of EVA upstream ethylene monomers and vinyl acetate. At the same time, China's Gulei Petrochemical in Fujian Province, with its 280,000 tons/year EVA facility, initiated a 53-day full plant maintenance, covering core production units. This, combined with force majeure announcements from overseas companies such as Hanwha, Lotte, and Thailand's TPI, which suspended dollar quotations, led to a rapid intensification of expectations for a global supply tightening.

Recently (March 1-17), the EVA operating rate has been around 81%. During this period, the prices of raw materials, ethylene and vinyl acetate, have significantly increased, strengthening the cost support for EVA. As of March 16, the price of ethylene from Sinopec in East China was 9,500 CNY/ton, an increase of 62.39% from 5,850 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month; as of March 16, the market price of vinyl acetate in East China was 8,000 CNY/ton, an increase of 34.45% from 5,950 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month.

Recently (March 1-17), the EVA market demand in China was hot at the beginning and cooled down later. At the beginning of the month, due to geopolitical conflicts and maintenance of large enterprises' plants, EVA prices surged significantly, leading to panic buying by downstream rigid demand. By mid-month, downstream factories had already completed their phased inventory replenishment, and their acceptance of high-priced goods decreased significantly. Coupled with the rapid price fluctuations, this triggered a wait-and-see attitude, causing real transactions to stall.

Looking ahead, the EVA market is expected to remain in a high-range volatile pattern in the short term, primarily influenced by developments in the Middle East situation, the progress of petrochemical maintenance, and the pace at which downstream inventories are being depleted. If geopolitical conflicts persist, crude oil prices may stay elevated, sustaining cost support; meanwhile, the speed at which downstream inventories are cleared will affect the extent of price increases for EVA.