Since the beginning of the year, the EVA market in China has seen a significant increase; indicators from Business Society suggest cautious short-term operations

April 14 news

Since 2026, the EVA market in China has seen a significant increase. According to the commodity price analysis system, as of April 13, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 13,350 CNY per ton, a 36.69% increase from the beginning of the year when it was 9,766 CNY per ton.

In January and February, EVA prices fluctuated narrowly, and market trading sentiment remained subdued. During this period, photovoltaic installation and encapsulant film production entered the traditional off-season, with downstream demand primarily driven by rigid procurement needs, leaving the demand side lacking any significant new growth support. Meanwhile, Chinese EVA plants operated smoothly, and imported supplies remained plentiful, keeping supply and demand in a state of weak equilibrium. Coupled with high inventory levels accumulated earlier in the industry, pressure to reduce inventories has dampened upward price momentum, resulting in an overall trend of bottoming-out and oscillating price movements.

Since March, the EVA market has seen an explosive increase, with prices surging from a low of 10,150 CNY/ton to stabilize at 13,350 CNY/ton by mid-April, representing a cumulative price increase of over 30%. The main factors influencing this are threefold: First, the cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products on April 1st led to a concentrated rush in installations by module companies from late March to April, directly driving emergency restocking by photovoltaic film manufacturers. Given that EVA used in photovoltaic films accounts for 50%-60% of total demand, this short-term surge in demand disrupted the supply-demand balance. Second, in the second quarter, China's EVA facilities underwent a large-scale, coordinated maintenance period, more extensive than in previous years, leading to a temporary reduction in supply during April and May. Additionally, geopolitical tensions overseas have closed the import arbitrage window, resulting in a sharp decline of over 50% in imported supplies, further tightening the spot supply. Third, the rise in crude oil prices has pushed up the costs of upstream raw materials such as ethylene and vinyl acetate, increasing the production cost of EVA. As a result, producers have continuously raised factory prices, further reinforcing the market's bullish sentiment.

As of early April, EVA production capacity utilization was hovering around 78% to 81%. During this period, prices of raw materials—ethylene and vinyl acetate—remained at high levels, providing strong cost support for EVA. As of April 13, the Sinopec East China price for ethylene stood at 9,800 CNY per ton, up 62.39% from the year-beginning price of 6,150 CNY per ton. Meanwhile, as of April 13, the East China market price for vinyl acetate reached 12,300 CNY per ton, an increase of 34.45% from the year-beginning price of 5,875 CNY per ton.

Currently, as the peak of the rush installation boom in photovoltaic systems has passed, downstream export demand is slowing down marginally, speculative demand is waning, and the market has entered a period of cautious observation marked by a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. However, maintenance activities on the supply side are still ongoing, and spot supply remains somewhat tight for now, making it difficult for prices to decline significantly in the short term.

Future Market Forecast

Looking ahead, the spot analysis system shows that the EVAspot price curve has recently approached the 10-day moving average, indicating that the recent upward momentum has weakened, and EVA prices may adjust weakly in the short term; in addition, the current EVA price is at an overbought position for the year, and market operations suggest being cautious about buying in the short term, with a focus on observing.