Methanol market prices continue to rise in China

March 6th, news:

According to the commodity market analysis system, from March 2 to 6 (up to 15:00), the quotation for methanol in the East China port of China rose from 2,370 CNY/ton to around 2,595 CNY/ton. During this period, the price increased by 9.49%, up 16.27% month-over-month, and down 2.04% year-over-year. After the Spring Festival, downstream demand and road transportation gradually recovered, and apparent import demand increased. The overall port methanol inventory remained largely unchanged, maintaining a high level. Due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, port prices surged and transmitted to the inland market, leading to a strong speculative buying sentiment.

As of the close on March 6, the methanol futures closing price on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rose. The main methanol futures contract 2605 opened at 2508 CNY/ton, with a high of 2614 CNY/ton, a low of 2463 CNY/ton, and closed at 2586 CNY/ton, up 59 from the previous trading day's settlement price, a price increase of 2.33%. The trading volume was 2,036,102, the open interest was 679,690, and the daily change in open interest was -23,068.

Methanol Spot and Futures Comparison Chart:

As of March 6, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions of China is as follows:

Cost perspective, as coal downstream enterprises in China gradually resume work and production, the demand expectation has increased, and the market prices are mainly stable. The impact on the cost perspective is mixed.

Coal/Thermal Coal (Upstream Raw Material) - Methanol Price Trend Comparison Chart:

On the demand side, driven by rising prices of the raw material methanol, market prices of downstream industry products have also risen to some extent. However, due to price increases being constrained, the production profits in industries such as dimethyl ether, MTBE, glacial acetic acid, and methane chlorides continue to suffer losses passively—among these, the MTBE industry has experienced the largest profit decline. The MTO industry, benefiting from the simultaneous sharp rise in propylene and ethylene monomer prices, has seen a significant rebound in production profits, supporting sustained high operating rates in the industry. Most downstream products are influenced by methanol prices, and the demand side for methanol remains favorably impacted.

Methanol-Acetic Acid (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Methanol-MTBE (downstream product) price trend comparison chart:

Supply side, Guangju New Materials and Hebei Huafeng are undergoing plant maintenance; Sinopec Great Wall's facility has resumed operations. Overall, the volume of lost production exceeds the volume that has been restored, leading to a decrease in output and a decline in the capacity utilization rate. The methanol supply side is affected by bearish factors.

On the international markets, as of the close on March 5, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at USD 339.5–340.5 per ton, up USD 5 per ton. The FOB U.S. Gulf methanol market closed at 105–107 cents per gallon, up 5 cents per gallon; and the European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at EUR 352–354 per ton, up EUR 13 per ton.

Looking ahead, with capacity tightening recently and upstream shippers urging faster pickup of goods, freight rates have risen noticeably overall. Overall, methanol analysts expect the Chinese spot methanol market to remain predominantly in a strong, consolidating trend.