August 21 news
According to the commodity market analysis system, from August 14 to 21 (up to 15:00), the quotation for methanol in the East China port of the Chinese market rose continuously from 2,707 CNY/ton to around 2,956 CNY/ton. The price increased significantly by 9.20% during the period, up 9.24% month-over-month, and 28.06% year-over-year. Export and shipping supported the pickup, but with the resumption of port unloading, the arrival of foreign vessels was relatively concentrated, leading to an accumulation of methanol inventory at the port, though it still remained at a low level. Additionally, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and the expected import volume is also low. The tight supply of methanol along the coast has driven a strong increase in methanol prices.
As of the close on August 21, the methanol futures closing price on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rose. The main methanol futures contract 2610 opened at 2865 CNY/ton, reached a high of 2915 CNY/ton, and a low of 2845 CNY/ton, finally closing at 2909 CNY/ton, an increase of 80 yuan or 2.83% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 1,957,108, with an open interest of 873,688, and an increase in open interest of 5,954 for the day.
Methanol Spot vs Futures Comparison Chart:
As of August 21, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions of China:
| Region | Price |
|---|---|
| Shanxi, China | 2740-2750 CNY/ton, factory pick-up, cash on delivery |
| Anhui, China | 2720-2750 CNY/ton |
| Henan, China | 2785-2785 CNY/ton, factory pick-up, cash on delivery |
On the cost side, coal supply remains tight, yet downstream demand is only at the level of actual needs, resulting in weak upward momentum for coal prices and a shift toward sideways trading. This continues to provide cost support for methanol. The factors influencing methanol costs remain predominantly positive.
Coal/Thermal Coal (Upstream Raw Material) - Methanol Price Trend Comparison Chart:
Demand Side: On the downstream side, attention is focused on the recovery status of the Anhui Huayi plant and the maintenance schedule of Henan Longyu. Acetic acid demand is expected to decline. Chloride plants such as Jinling Dawang and Dongyue remain in a state of reduced production, leading to lower methanol demand. Shandong Lianyi, after increasing its load, is now operating steadily, boosting formaldehyde demand. Meanwhile, demand for other downstream products—including MTBE, BDO, carbonates, and exports—has also risen. Most downstream products are influenced by methanol prices, and the overall demand for methanol benefits from these positive factors.
Methanol-Acetic Acid (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:
Methanol-MTBE (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:
Supply Side, Jinneng Technology, Xinjiang Tianye, Xindongheng, Chongqing Wansheng, Xinjiang Zhongtai, Shaanxi Changqing, and Jin Kong Yanhua are undergoing plant maintenance; Zhejiang Petrochemical and Zhongyuan Dahan facilities have resumed operations. The number of planned methanol recovery units has increased, while the number of units undergoing planned maintenance or production cuts has decreased. The expected recovery volume is greater than the loss, so the overall market supply is likely to increase. The supply side factors for methanol are generally bearish.
On the international markets, as of the close on August 20, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at USD 510–511 per ton. The FOB U.S. Gulf methanol market closed at 134–136 cents per gallon; and the FOB Rotterdam, Europe methanol market closed at EUR 393–395 per ton.
| Region | Country | Closing Price |
|---|---|---|
| Asia | CFR Southeast Asia | USD 510–511 per ton |
| Europe and the U.S. | U.S. Gulf | 134–136 cents per gallon |
| Europe | FOB Rotterdam | EUR 393–395 per ton |
For the future market forecast, although the overall demand remains relatively weak, the expectation of the "Golden September and Silver October" period, along with some downstream external procurement, has boosted market buying sentiment. In summary, methanol analysts predict that the Chinese methanol spot market may consolidate at high levels.
