Raw Materials Soften, Consumption Sluggish—PC Prices Fall from High Levels

April 22nd, according to news,

Price Trend

According to SpotCom data, since mid-April, the Chinese PC market has seen a decline in prices from high levels, with the spot prices of most grades generally decreasing. As of April 2nd, the mixed benchmark price for PC was around 16,133.33 CNY/ton, representing a 2.52% decrease from the beginning of the month.

Reason Analysis

Supply Side: Since April, maintenance of PC polymerization enterprises in China has been relatively concentrated. The scheduled maintenance of Covestro was carried out, Luxi Petrochemical had a temporary shutdown of one line, and Chi Mei Zhangzhou implemented technical upgrades. However, overall, the operating load within the period decreased by 7%, with the current average operating rate at around 80%, indicating a limited reduction. Currently, the weekly average production is within 70,000 tons. There is not much room for further supply contraction, and overall, the supply side provides moderate support to PC.

Regarding Raw Materials: As shown in the chart above, the Chinese bisphenol A market has been gradually declining since early April. Affected by the sharp drop in international crude oil prices, phenol and acetone markets have stalled and begun to fall, thereby dragging down the price center of bisphenol A in China. Meanwhile, current supply changes for bisphenol A remain limited, while demand has softened. As a result, traders are actively selling off their inventories and tend to adopt a strategy of lowering prices to secure orders. Overall, this has weakened the support for polycarbonate (PC) costs.

Demand Side: Terminal enterprises’ profitability remains unchanged, and downstream PC factories continue to operate at relatively low capacity utilization levels. Although current PC prices have fallen from their high levels, they still remain within the three-year high range. Buyers have become cautious about restocking and show little willingness to build inventories. The market is characterized by a strong wait-and-see attitude, and liquidity in the supply chain has declined. The earlier speculative surge in the PC market has largely subsided, causing sellers to adopt a more subdued stance; quotes are now aligned with prevailing market conditions, and there’s an increasing trend of offering discounts to secure orders. Overall, demand-side factors provide weak support for PC spot prices.

Future Market Forecast

Entering late April, the Chinese PC market continues to experience a downward trend. The price of upstream bisphenol A continues to weaken, dragging down the cost for PC. Chinese PC polymer plants have slightly reduced their operating rates, with limited positive impact on the supply side. Market transactions are mainly driven by weak rigid demand, and buyers are cautious, purchasing only as needed, with most transactions being small orders. It is expected that in the short term, the PC market may continue to be suppressed by the decline in the far upstream, and there may still be room for further downward adjustment.

Technical Analysis

Analysts believe that according to SpotCom data, on April 18th, the 10-day moving average of PC crossed below the 20-day moving average, and recently, the negative mean difference has shown a trend of widening. Supporting indicators show that the 5 price levels of PC are currently at recent lows and further out at mid-high levels, and they are in an alert position for being overbought on a yearly basis and oversold on both 10-day and 20-day bases. It is judged that the downward trend of the spot price may accelerate in the short term, and it is recommended to closely monitor international crude oil and Middle East shipping conditions for future market trends.