Fundamentals Lack Positive Factors, PTA Prices Fluctuate and Weaken

September 15, News

According to the commodity market analysis system, since September, the PTA market in China has seen a slight decline. The average spot price of PTA in the East China region is 4631 CNY/ton, a decrease of 2.6% from the beginning of the month.

Cost support weakened as OPEC+ gradually delivered on its plan to increase oil production, pushing crude prices lower. As of September 12, the settlement price for the October contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures stood at $62.69 per barrel, while the November Brent crude oil futures settled at $66.99 per barrel. OPEC+ has maintained its stance of boosting production in October, further heightening the risk of an oversupply. Meanwhile, the traditional peak season for fuel demand has ended, signaling a shift as demand enters a critical turning point. With supply now outpacing demand and geopolitical tensions unlikely to escalate anytime soon, crude oil prices are expected to remain under pressure.

Recently, maintenance units such as Hengli Huizhou and Xin Fengming have restarted gradually since early September, partially alleviating the tight supply situation of PTA in China. The current operating rate of the industry is around 77%. Previously, PTA relied on maintaining operations to reduce inventory, but this will be difficult to sustain in the future. With new facilities expected to come online in October, there is a continuous expectation of increased supply in China.

The traditional peak season for the downstream sector has arrived, but the performance of terminal orders is average, with demand remaining lukewarm and lacking substantial drivers. Among them, polyester filament manufacturers have a strong desire to ship goods and continue with promotional strategies, leading to continuous price reductions. In the polyester staple fiber market, the demand for downstream spinning orders has improved compared to last month. Although the overall order volume is below expectations, the improving news has boosted the sentiment of industry players, leading to a moderate increase in the procurement of polyester staple fibers. As a result, its prices have shown resilience.

Analysts believe that the PTA market is showing caution, with concerns about increased supply and lukewarm demand even during the traditional peak season. In the absence of significant fundamental support, PTA prices are expected to remain weak and volatile.