Market Support Weakens, Acetic Acid Prices Continuously Decline

April 22 news

According to the commodity market analysis system, as of April 22, the average market price of acetic acid in China was 3,966.67 CNY/ton, a decrease of 783.33 CNY/ton compared to the price of 4,750.00 CNY/ton on April 11, representing a price decrease of 16.49%.

Recently (4.11-4.22), the price of acetic acid in China has declined significantly. The raw material, methanol, has been fluctuating, with general cost support; on the supply side, as the price of acetic acid rose to a high level, downstream buyers gradually developed resistance to the high prices, leading to a weakening in market trading sentiment and an accumulation of inventory among suppliers. The terminal market showed weak demand, and the prices of downstream products in the industrial chain continued to fall, putting pressure on the acetic acid market. Consequently, the market's dominant position shifted towards the demand side, and under the influence of negative factors, the price of acetic acid continuously decreased.

The recent methanol raw material market has been fluctuating. As of April 22, the average price in the Chinese market was 3,256 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.33% compared to the price of 3,300 CNY/ton on April 11. Affected by geopolitical conflicts, methanol import supplies have become tight, and futures market prices are high, supporting a firm performance in the spot market. However, downstream resistance to high prices has increased, and pre-holiday inventory demand is weak. Some suppliers have lowered their negotiation focus to promote sales, leading to a decrease in methanol prices and a weakening of the cost support for acetic acid.

Downstream acetic anhydride market has shown a weak downward trend, with the average ex-factory price falling from 7225 CNY/ton on April 11 to 6100 CNY/ton on April 22, a price decrease of 15.57%. The supply side of acetic anhydride has not changed much, with companies mainly following the market. Downstream buyers show only moderate enthusiasm for purchasing at high prices. The price of the raw material, acetic acid, has fallen, weakening cost support, and the market sentiment is bearish, leading to a continuous decline in the price of acetic anhydride.

Spot market analysis:

According to Spotcom data, the 10-day moving average of acetic acid prices has crossed below the 20-day moving average, indicating that prices have entered a downward channel.

Considering the five-level positioning, the current price is at a high level for the past year and has triggered a “20-day oversold signal,” indicating that the short-term price decline is relatively significant and the market is in a temporary oversold condition.

For the future market forecast, acetic acid analysts believe that currently, Chinese acetic acid enterprises have sufficient inventory, and there is a clear intention to reduce stock before the holiday. The downstream product market is weak, and the willingness to enter the market is not high, providing insufficient support for acetic acid. The overall market fundamentals are weak. It is expected that in the short term, the acetic acid market will experience a weak consolidation. Attention should be paid to the supply situation in the future.