April Domestic Refinery Petroleum Coke Market Trended Downward

April 30th, news:

According to the commodity analysis system, the price of petcoke from local refineries in April showed a significant increase at first and then a decline from the high point, with the overall price showing a notable upward trend for the entire month. Market sentiment was strongly boosted at the beginning of the month, but there was a phase of adjustment by the end of the month, resulting in relatively large fluctuations. The average price of medium-sulfur petcoke products from major local refineries in China was 3,541.00 CNY/ton on March 31, up 30.87% from 2,705.75 CNY/ton on March 1.

Cost aspect: In April, the price of 180CST fuel oil in China saw a significant decline. During the first half of April, the fluctuation and downward trend in the international crude oil market provided limited support to the Chinese marine fuel market. Additionally, the prices of blending components for Chinese marine fuel decreased, with weak demand from the midstream and downstream sectors and general purchasing willingness. Terminal demand did not improve, and shipowners were cautious about refueling. By the end of April, a substantial increase in international crude oil prices supported the Chinese marine fuel market, leading to an upward trend. According to reports, as of April 30, the self-pickup low-sulfur 180CST fuel oil was quoted at 5,800-6,300 CNY/ton, and the self-pickup low-sulfur 120CST fuel oil was quoted at 5,900-6,400 CNY/ton.

Supply side: In April, Chinese refineries entered the annual maintenance season, with some units shutting down for maintenance. However, the earlier arrivals of imported petroleum coke were still being processed, keeping port inventories at high levels. Some refineries faced difficulties in selling their products, leading to a continuous rise in inventory levels. To accelerate cash flow and alleviate inventory pressure, companies reduced their prices, which led to an overall weakening of regional prices. The concentrated price cuts in the latter part of the month further amplified market panic.

On the demand side: In April, the operating rate of end-use processing enterprises in China’s primary aluminum industry remained low. Traditional downstream sectors such as real estate and automotive showed weak order volumes, resulting in insufficient rigid demand for procurement. Meanwhile, China’s operational primary aluminum capacity continued to ramp up, leading to an accumulation of inventories in social warehouses. Consequently, rigid demand for petroleum coke plummeted, forcing companies to rely primarily on drawing down existing inventories. Moreover, companies were highly inclined to push for lower prices on new procurement orders, directly hampering shipments of petroleum coke from independent refineries.

Market Forecast: In May, demand from downstream sectors such as electrolytic aluminum and carbon-based steel industries is unlikely to show any significant improvement. Market sentiment remains largely wait-and-see, with traders adopting a cautious approach. Trading activity in the market is generally moderate, and smelters continue to face inventory pressure, focusing primarily on active sales and volume generation. There is room for upward adjustment in the pricing of prebaked anodes in the new round of pricing; meanwhile, the operating rate of prebaked anode production remains stable, which is favorable for the petroleum coke market. As a result, petroleum coke prices in May are likely to remain within a range of fluctuation.