September 21 report:
This daily report is prepared using the method of average difference analysis. The current urea market in China is showing a clear downward signal, with the 1-year cycle price at a medium-high level, indicating limited room for increase. Subsequently, it is necessary to closely monitor the changes in the cost of upstream coal and liquid ammonia, as well as the demand for compound fertilizers and agricultural fertilizers downstream. The following are the specific analysis contents:
I. Table of Finite Differences
| Average Difference Indicator | (2026.09.20) | (2026.09.19) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Average Difference (D5) | -17.00 | -1.50 | - |
| 10-Day Average Difference (D10) | 2.00 | 3.25 | - |
| 20-Day Average Difference (D20) | 19.37 | 25.87 | - |
II. Signal State Determination
Clearly identify a downtrend signal
III. Conclusions on Trend Directions
Urea prices are currently on a clear downward trend.
Judgment Reason: The 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day average differences all changed in the same negative direction compared to the previous day, which meets the criteria for a clear downward trend according to the average difference method. This is consistent with the spot market performance on September 20, where companies such as Hualu Hengsheng lowered their urea factory prices.
IV. Positional Space Reference
Urea prices in China over a 1-year period are at the 4th level out of 5 (moderately high), with limited room for increase. If the downward trend continues, there is some potential for further decline.
Five, Trend Chart Display
VI. Data Notes
The latest available data is up to September 20, 2026, and it is recommended to refer to real-time data.
VII. Risk Disclosure
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
