In April, the Chinese marine fuel market saw a significant decline

April 30 news

According to the commodity analysis system, the marine fuel market in East China saw a significant decline in April. As of April 30, the average price of 180CST fuel oil in China was 6112.50 CNY per ton, a decrease of 7.56% from 6612.00 CNY per ton on April 1.

In April, the price of 180CST fuel oil in China saw a significant decline: In the first half of April, the fluctuating downward trend in the international crude oil market provided limited support to the Chinese marine fuel market. Additionally, the prices of blending components for Chinese marine fuel decreased, with weak demand from the midstream and downstream sectors and general purchasing interest. Terminal demand did not improve, and shipowners were cautious about refueling. By the end of April, the international crude oil market experienced a substantial increase, which supported the Chinese marine fuel market, leading to an upward trend. According to reports, as of April 30, the self-pickup low-sulfur 180CST fuel oil was quoted at 5,800-6,300 CNY/ton, and the self-pickup low-sulfur 120CST fuel oil was quoted at 5,900-6,400 CNY/ton.

In April, international crude oil prices experienced volatile upward movements: In the first half of April, crude oil prices initially declined, primarily due to a rapid shift from the previous geopolitical conflict premium to a combination of easing negotiation prospects and negative fundamental factors. Under the combined influence of four key factors—the signals of resumed U.S.-Iran talks, the partial resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the IEA’s downward revision of supply-and-demand forecasts, and the sharp increase in API inventories—risk premiums previously concentrated in the market began to dissipate, leading to a downward trend in crude oil prices. Coupled with weak global demand and concerns that escalating geopolitical tensions could weigh on the economy and oil consumption, the crude oil market plunged sharply. However, toward the end of April, as negotiations stalled, the crude oil market reversed course and started to rebound.

Regarding international fuel oil, according to Singapore’s Enterprise Singapore (ESG): As of the week ending April 22, Singapore’s fuel oil inventories fell by 1.164 million barrels to 22.501 million barrels; light distillate inventories declined by 1.086 million barrels to 16.916 million barrels; and middle distillate inventories rose by 0.45 million barrels to 10.722 million barrels.

Market Outlook: The prospects for U.S.-Iran negotiations in May remain unclear, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz continues to be fraught with uncertainty. Coupled with the approaching peak season for crude oil demand in summer, international oil prices are likely to experience wide-ranging fluctuations within a relatively broad range. Should geopolitical tensions escalate once again, oil prices could rebound, providing some support for marine fuel prices. As May ushers in the traditional shipping peak season, ship traffic activity is expected to pick up, and the underlying demand for marine fuels may see a temporary recovery. It is anticipated that, driven by cost support and the rebounding demand, the 180CST fuel oil market in May will end its downward trend and enter a phase of volatile consolidation.