Falling Crude Oil Prices Weigh Down Commodities; Maleic Anhydride Market Trends Also Weaken Accordingly

May 27th, news:

According to Spotcom data, the recent maleic anhydride market in China has continued to decline. As of May 27, the average market price of maleic anhydride remained at 8,112.50 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.82% from 8,262.50 CNY/ton on May 20.

Supply side: The recent continuous decline in international crude oil prices has dragged down the trend of China's commodities, and the main factories' prices for maleic anhydride have continued to fall; currently, the limited availability of maleic anhydride spot goods is supporting the Chinese market. As of May 27, in the Shandong region, the factory price of solid maleic anhydride is operating around 7,100-7,600 CNY/ton, while the factory price of liquid maleic anhydride is operating around 7,300 CNY/ton.

On the upstream side: Recently, liquefied petroleum gas prices at Shandong refineries have declined, while China's n-butane prices have fluctuated, reaching 6,550 CNY per ton. In May, Saudi CP prices stood at USD 800 per ton, remaining stable.

Downstream: Recently, the market for unsaturated resins has been weak, mainly due to the decline in raw material prices. The cost support for unsaturated resins is limited, and downstream enterprises are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, maintaining procurement based on rigid demand.

Maleic anhydride product analysts believe that in the short term, it will be difficult for the downstream unsaturated resins industry, which is on the demand side, to significantly increase its operating rate. On the cost side, raw material prices are trending weaker, leading to a reduction in cost support for maleic anhydride production. In the short term, the Chinese maleic anhydride market will continue to maintain a weak operating trend, with prices likely to continue a fluctuating downward trend.

Spot market trend forecast:

From the spot commodity market analysis system, it can be seen that the current 10-day moving average of maleic anhydride is still above the 20-day moving average, showing a parallel trend, indicating that the market is still in an upward trend, but the momentum for the rise is moderate.

Looking at the five-timeframe perspective, current maleic anhydride prices are at high levels over 10 days, 20 days, and 30 days; at the median level over 60 days; and at high levels over 90 days. Prices remain elevated even on a one-year basis. Coupled with the “1/07 below” warning label, this indicates downside risks in the short term. In the near term, market sentiment remains cautious, with downstream buyers primarily adopting a demand-driven procurement approach. As a result, prices are likely to continue fluctuating within a narrow range.