September 2nd, update
Recently, due to the rise in international crude oil prices, U.S. diesel inventories falling to historically low levels for the same period, and the eleventh increase in China's refined oil prices this year, Chinese diesel prices have continued to rise. Current indicators show that diesel prices are in a clear upward trend, but prices are already at a high level for the nearly 1-year cycle, with limited room for further increases. It is necessary to closely monitor the trend of crude oil prices and changes in downstream demand.
I. Statistics on Changes in Mean Differences
| Average Difference Type | Value as of September 1, 2026 | Value as of August 31, 2026 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 235.12 | 197.29 | + |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 85.78 | 50.50 | + |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 218.40 | 212.48 | + |
II. Signal State Determination
Currently, to clarify the upward signal.
Three, conclusions on trend directions
The current trend in diesel prices is clearly increasing. Reason: The changes in the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages compared to the previous day are completely consistent, and all three are positive, fully meeting the criteria for a clear upward trend according to the moving average method.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
The current diesel price in China is in the 5th tier (the highest 20% range) for the 60-day, 3-month, and 1-year periods, indicating limited room for further increases.
Five, fundamental supporting factors
Cost-side support: On August 31, international crude oil prices surged significantly. The settlement price for the U.S. WTI crude oil October contract reached $85.76 per barrel, up 2.8%; the settlement price for the Brent crude oil November contract reached $90.49 per barrel, up 2.7%. The strong upward trend in crude oil costs provides robust support for diesel prices.
Overseas supply remains tight: As of the week ending August 21, U.S. distillate fuel oil inventories (with diesel accounting for the largest share) stood at 103.4 million barrels, approximately 14% below the average level for the same period over the past five years and at a historically low level for this time of year. Expectations of tight supply and demand in overseas markets are driving prices higher.
Chinese policy support: On August 28, the adjustment window for refined oil prices in China was implemented. In 2026, the retail price of refined oil in China has cumulatively experienced 11 increases, 5 decreases, and 1 suspension. The effect of the price adjustment has led to a continuous rise in the quotations for diesel from local refineries, with the quotation range for diesel from local refineries in the northeastern region reaching 8300-8400 CNY/ton on September 1.
Six, Trend Chart Display
7. Data Description
The latest available data is up to September 1, 2026, and it is recommended to refer to real-time data.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
