June 26th News
According to SpotCom data: In June, the price of adipic acid weakened and declined. On June 1st, the average market price of adipic acid in China was 8,866 CNY/ton, and on June 25th, the average market price of adipic acid in China was 7,983 CNY/ton, a decrease of 9.96%.
The main factors influencing the rise and fall of adipic acid prices in June
Supply side: In June, the industry operating rate in China remained at a low level, with an operating rate of around 63%. Although the tightening of the supply side provided some bottom support for prices, it could not reverse the downward trend in prices against the backdrop of extremely weak demand.
On the demand side: The traditional off-season for chemical products has arrived, leading to lower operating rates in downstream industries such as pulp and shoe sole raw materials. Downstream companies generally adopt a cautious “replenish inventory only as needed” strategy, resulting in weak purchasing intentions. Consequently, social inventories are depleting slowly, and it’s becoming increasingly difficult to sell high-priced goods.
On the cost side: As we entered June, the central price of international crude oil saw a slight downward shift, and the cost support provided by pure benzene—the direct feedstock—for adipic acid noticeably weakened compared to the first quarter. As a result, it has become difficult for adipic acid prices to replicate the one-sided upward trend driven by costs that was seen in March.
Technical-level prediction
According to the SpotCom data, the price trend of adipic acid shows that a key indicator is when the 10-day moving average crossed above the 20-day moving average on May 18. Then, on June 1, the 10-day moving average crossed below the 20-day moving average, and the price of adipic acid continued to fall. By the end of June, the 10-day and 20-day moving averages began to converge. The negative difference between the averages narrowed, indicating a deceleration in the decline.
Auxiliary indicator: As of the end of June, adipic acid prices were at their 10-day high, their 20-day low, and their 30-day low. In July, the adipic acid market is expected to see an upward trend.
In summary: The forecast for the supply and demand situation indicates that cost support will weaken, supply pressure will be moderate, and demand will decrease. At the beginning of July, the adipic acid market in China may stabilize after the decline and mainly show an upward trend with fluctuations. From a technical perspective, it can be seen that the adipic acid market in June continued to fall and has already reached a low level. Therefore, at the beginning of July, the overall trend of the adipic acid market in China will mainly be an upward fluctuation, with the expected price ranging between 8,000 CNY/ton and 9,000 CNY/ton.
