July 28 News
According to Spotcom data: In July, the adipic acid market in China improved, showing a fluctuating upward trend. On July 1, the average market price of adipic acid in China was 7,816 CNY per ton, and by July 28, the average market price of adipic acid had risen to 8,266 CNY per ton, an increase of 5.76%.
The main factors influencing the rise and fall of adipic acid prices in July
Supply side: The industry's production has significantly contracted, with the average operating rate in July consistently below 60%. Major facilities with capacities of over one million tons, such as those owned by Pingmei Shenma, Shandong Haili, and Hualu Hengsheng, have been shut down for maintenance or are operating at reduced loads. This has led to a decrease in the total amount of available spot goods in the market, and social inventories are slowly being depleted, with low-priced supplies becoming scarce. The high cost of benzene and the continuous losses in adipic acid production have led manufacturers to hold back from selling and support prices, forming the core support at the bottom of the market.
On the demand side: At traditional PU downstream factories producing PU synthetic leather pastes and shoe sole resins, operating rates generally remain below 50%. Overseas orders for end-market footwear, apparel, luggage, and synthetic leather are sluggish. Downstream manufacturers continue to deplete their existing raw material inventories, limiting their purchases to small, daily-essential orders only. Transactions involving high-priced supplies have virtually come to a standstill, with no significant bulk restocking activities taking place.
On the cost side: The volatile upward trend in crude oil prices has driven up spot prices for pure benzene, prompting factories to collectively raise their ex-factory quotes—a direct catalyst for price hikes mid-month. As crude oil prices fell, pure benzene prices plummeted sharply. The weakening of international crude oil weighed on the aromatics market, rapidly eroding cost support. Consequently, adipic acid lost its upward momentum, and market prices followed suit in a synchronized pullback.
Technical-level prediction
According to Spotcom data, the price trend of adipic acid shows that after the 10-day moving average crossed below the 20-day moving average on June 27, the 10-day moving average crossed above the 20-day moving average on July 17, and the price of adipic acid continued to rise. By the end of July, the 10-day and 20-day moving averages gradually approached each other. The positive narrowing of the difference between the averages indicates a weakening upward momentum.
Auxiliary indicators: At the end of July, the price of adipic acid was at a 10-day high, 20-day high, and 30-day high. In July, the adipic acid market in China experienced a decline.
To sum up: According to supply-and-demand forecasts, cost support is generally moderate, supply pressure is relatively low, and demand remains weak. As a result, the adipic acid market is likely to weaken in early August, with prices expected to fluctuate and decline primarily. From a technical perspective, we can see that the upward momentum for adipic acid prices in August is insufficient, and prices have already reached high levels. Therefore, overall, the adipic acid market in early August is expected to experience volatile declines, with prices forecast to range between 7,500 CNY/ton and 8,000 CNY/ton.
