July 3rd News
I. Price Trends
According to the data monitoring system, on July 3, the cyclohexanone market price in Shandong region of China was 7,800 CNY/ton. Compared to June 26 (when the cyclohexanone reference price was 8,200 CNY/ton), the price decreased by 400 CNY/ton, a 4.88% decrease.
This week (June 26-July 3), the cyclohexanone market in Shandong, China, showed an overall downward trend, with cyclohexanone prices continuing to move towards lower levels and negotiations focusing on the lower end. As of July 3, the cyclohexanone market price in Shandong, China, was around 7,800-8,000 CNY per ton.
2. Core Factors Analysis
Supply Pressure Release: Chinese cyclohexanone plant operations remain at a high level, with ample market spot circulation. Manufacturers have proactively lowered their quotes to promote transactions.
Downstream demand is weak: The core downstream caprolactam and adipic acid factories have insufficient purchasing, and the terminal chemical fiber and nylon industries are in a low-demand season, lacking substantial orders to support.
Raw Material Drag: The upstream pure benzene market has been volatile and declining, easing cost support for cyclohexanone. With no strong cost support in place, spot prices have room to offer discounts.
III. Future Market Forecast
Currently, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong is experiencing a sluggish trading atmosphere, with weak effective support within the market. It is expected that in the short term, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong will mainly operate with a weak and consolidative trend. Specific attention should be paid to changes in supply and demand as well as cost factors.
From a technical perspective
From the spot market analysis system, it can be seen that currently, the 10-day moving average of cyclohexanone is continuously below the 20-day moving average, and the downward difference is expanding, indicating a downward trend in the future. The auxiliary indicators show that the price of cyclohexanone is at the middle position among the five levels (annual position). Combining the two indicators, it is predicted that there is a risk of a decline in the market price of cyclohexanone in the future, but the downward space is limited. It is also necessary to closely monitor the fluctuations in crude oil prices, the operation status of facilities, and changes in downstream orders in China.
