A Comprehensive Review and Trend Forecast for Ethylene Glycol Prices in 2025-2026

January 1st News

Review of Ethylene Glycol Price Trends in 2025

In 2025, ethylene glycol prices will initially strengthen and then weaken.

In 2025, the ethylene glycol market in China showed a pattern of "strong at first, then weak, with a rebound from a low point at the end of the year." The ethylene glycol market in China in 2025 can be roughly divided into three phases: "high volatility at the beginning of the year, a one-sided decline starting from the end of August, and a new low followed by a rebound in December."

At the end of 2025, port-level ethylene glycol prices will stop falling at their low point and rebound.

The core logic behind the price trend of ethylene glycol in 2025 is “dominated by oversupply, with costs and demand serving as supporting drivers.” Before the end of August, supply and demand were relatively balanced, leading to volatile prices. After the end of August, as supply surged and demand weakened, prices continued to decline. In December, due to plant maintenance, rising costs, and inventory replenishment driven by demand, prices rebounded from their low levels. However, the long-term structural oversupply remains unchanged, and the sustainability of this rebound still faces uncertainties. The detailed reasons for each stage of the ethylene glycol market throughout the year are as follows:

Phase 1: From January to August, the core logic behind ethylene glycol market trends was “a temporary balance between supply and demand coupled with cost fluctuations driving price movements.” From January to March, prices fluctuated upward due to cost support and restocking demand. From April to June, prices declined under the influence of a weak demand season and increased supply. From July to August, policy sentiment and plant maintenance boosted a price rebound; however, oversupply and weak demand limited further price increases, ultimately keeping prices within a range-bound fluctuation pattern.

Phase 2: From late August to November, the core logic behind ethylene glycol market trends is “dominated by oversupply, compounded by collapsing costs and weak demand.” From late August to mid-September, prices rapidly declined due to the concentrated commissioning of new production capacity, a surge in imports, and weaker-than-expected peak-season demand. From late September to October, driven by a sharp drop in crude oil prices that triggered a collapse in costs, coupled with a dramatic increase in port inventories, prices continued to fall. In November, as the oversupply situation persisted and panic selling by investors intensified, prices approached their lowest levels.

Phase 3: The core logic behind the ethylene glycol market in December is “driven by the convergence of ‘all negative factors having been priced in,’ coupled with shrinking supply, rebounding costs, and a surge in demand for restocking.” From December 1 to 22, prices hit a new low since 2021 due to pressure from companies’ year-end cash recovery and the fact that plant maintenance had yet to be completed, combined with weak demand. From December 23 to 31, prices rebounded from their low levels as large-scale maintenance at Chinese plants led to a contraction in supply, while the rebound in crude oil prices boosted costs, polyester manufacturers began restocking ahead of the Spring Festival, and market sentiment improved.

2026 Ethylene Glycol Price Trend Forecast in China

The core logic behind the 2026 ethylene glycol market forecast is: "A continuation of loose supply, moderate demand growth, and fluctuating cost levels will drive the overall market to first weaken and then stabilize, exhibiting a pattern of range-bound fluctuations." From a data perspective, China's ethylene glycol production capacity had reached 28.225 million tons by the end of 2024, and the oversupply ratio is expected to remain around 35% in 2026, ensuring that the loose supply situation persists. In the first quarter, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, downstream polyester plant utilization rates are projected to drop to a yearly low of 70%-75%. Meanwhile, BASF’s new 800,000-ton ethylene glycol facility is scheduled to begin commissioning at the start of the year. Under the imbalance between supply and demand, inventory accumulation pressures will intensify, and prices may remain in a low-range fluctuation between 3,600 and 4,000 CNY per ton. In the second quarter, as downstream industries resume work and production, polyester demand will show marginal improvement. Coupled with the planned addition of 5.55 million tons of polyester filament capacity in 2026 (expected to boost ethylene glycol demand by 1.8593 million tons annually), and given that PTA is entering a commissioning vacuum period with concentrated maintenance activities in the second quarter, tight supply conditions will help lift industry sentiment, easing inventory accumulation pressures. As a result, prices are likely to bottom out and rebound to a range of 4,000-4,300 CNY per ton. In the second half of the year, the pace of new capacity commissioning will slow down, while coal prices are expected to follow a trend of lower initial prices followed by higher ones. Regarding crude oil, several institutions predict that the average Brent crude oil price in 2026 will fluctuate between $56 and $65 per barrel, providing phased support from the cost side. Meanwhile, moderate growth in both domestic and international textile demand will steadily boost ethylene glycol demand, bringing the supply-demand balance closer to equilibrium. Consequently, prices will most likely remain in a range of 4,000-4,400 CNY per ton, making it unlikely for the market to see a sustained upward trend. Key variables requiring close attention include the pace of commissioning for new capacity, fluctuations in crude oil and coal prices, changes in polyester plant utilization rates, and the effectiveness of industry policies aimed at curbing "internal involution."

2026 Quarterly Core Driver Forecasts:

First-quarter (January-March) key driving factors: 1. Supply side: New production capacity is undergoing concentrated commissioning (e.g., BASF’s 800,000-ton facility). Meanwhile, the average operating rates for coal-to-ethylene glycol and oil-to-ethylene glycol facilities have already risen to relatively high levels of 61.95% and 64.25%, respectively, in 2025. In the first quarter of 2026, facility utilization rates are likely to remain at 60%-65%, limiting supply reductions and sustaining a generally loose supply situation. 2. Demand side: The Spring Festival holiday caused downstream polyester plant operations to decline to a year-low range of 70%-75%. In the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, weaving plant operating rates are expected to drop to 55%-60%, resulting in weak rigid demand for ethylene glycol. Historical data show that the pace of resumption of work after the holiday typically lasts for 3-4 weeks. Although resumption has been gradual in March, monthly inventory drawdowns are projected to fall short of 50,000 tons, limiting the effectiveness of inventory reduction. 3. Inventory and sentiment: At the end of 2025, port inventories in East China had already reached 680,000 tons. Given the supply-demand imbalance, inventory accumulation in the coming quarter is expected to increase by an additional 150,000-200,000 tons. Market sentiment remains pessimistic, as it was at the end of 2025, further weighing on prices. 4. Cost side: Coal prices remain relatively weak, influenced by subdued seasonal demand following the end of winter heating. As for crude oil, institutions predict that the first quarter will be the period of greatest supply-demand looseness in the oil market, with Brent crude oil likely to trade in the $55-60 per barrel range, providing weak cost support.

Second-quarter (April–June) key driving factors: 1. Demand side: Downstream polyester production has fully resumed operations, with operating rates rebounding to a high of 85%–90%. Both domestic and international demand for textile products at the end-user level are gradually recovering, boosting weaving plant utilization rates to 70%–75%, thereby driving marginal improvement in ethylene glycol demand. Meanwhile, among the 5.55 million tons of new polyester filament capacity planned for 2026, about 30% is scheduled to come on stream in the second quarter, which is expected to add 550,000–600,000 tons per year to ethylene glycol demand, further supporting overall demand growth. 2. Supply side: The pace of commissioning new capacity has slowed down. The BASF plant commissioned in the first quarter is gradually entering a stable operational phase, and no other large-scale new capacity is currently planned. Additionally, oil-to-ethylene glycol plants operated at a loss for most of 2025, and some high-cost facilities, having suffered earlier losses, may enter maintenance periods. It is estimated that maintenance capacity in the industry during the second quarter will be around 2–2.5 million tons per year, easing supply-side pressure marginally. 3. Industry chain synergy: PTA is currently in a commissioning vacuum period. In the second quarter, mainland China plans maintenance on 7.2 million tons of PX units, and PTA units in East China, South China, and other regions will also undergo simultaneous maintenance. As a result, PTA plant utilization rates are expected to drop to 70%–75%, and the tight PTA supply is boosting sentiment across the polyester value chain, indirectly bolstering ethylene glycol demand. 4. Inventory side: With improving demand coupled with shrinking supply, inventory accumulation pressures have eased. It is expected that inventories will decline by 100,000–150,000 tons in the second quarter, gradually shifting toward destocking, which will provide support for prices.

Third-quarter (July–September) key driving factors: 1. Cost side: Coal prices have entered an upward phase characterized by "low in the first half, high in the second half." The summer peak electricity demand and autumn heating preparation needs are boosting coal prices, providing cost support for coal-to-ethylene glycol production. Crude oil prices may fluctuate due to geopolitical factors and the pace of global economic recovery. Institutions such as Citigroup forecast that Brent crude oil prices in the third quarter could range between $60 and $65 per barrel, thereby dominating the cost trend for ethylene glycol produced from crude oil. 2. Demand side: The downstream textile industry is entering its seasonal peak period, with both domestic and overseas demand showing moderate growth. Textile mill operating rates remain stable at 75%–80%, driving steady growth in ethylene glycol demand. Meanwhile, new polyester capacity continues to come online; it’s estimated that about 40% of newly commissioned polyester filament capacity will be operational in the third quarter, adding 750,000–800,000 tons per year to ethylene glycol demand—a significant increase. 3. Supply side: Under high-cost conditions, some inefficient coal-to-ethylene glycol plants—whose costs exceed 4,000 CNY per ton and account for roughly 15% of total capacity—may reduce output or undergo maintenance. It’s expected that around 1.8–2.2 million tons per year of capacity will be undergoing maintenance, creating expectations of supply contraction. Import volumes are influenced by price differentials between China and overseas markets. If Chinese prices rise above 4,200 CNY per ton, import profits will narrow, potentially leading to a temporary reduction in import volumes of 5%–8%. 4. Policy side: The effects of the industry’s “anti-inward competition” policies may gradually become apparent. Should measures related to capacity control be introduced, they could impact 5%–10% of total capacity, causing certain disruptions to market sentiment and the supply side.

Fourth-quarter (October–December) key driving factors: 1. Demand side: The peak season for the textile industry has ended, and demand is entering a seasonal downturn, with weaving plant operating rates dropping to 65%–70%. To manage cash flow at year-end, polyester enterprises may reduce their operating rates to 80%–85%, thereby cutting back on raw material inventories. As a result, ethylene glycol demand is weakening, and monthly demand is expected to decline by 80,000–120,000 tons. 2. Supply side: The commissioning of nearly all planned annual production capacity has been largely completed. Approximately 2.8 million tons of new capacity are scheduled for 2026, and it’s expected that all such capacity will be fully commissioned by the end of the fourth quarter, leading to a more stable supply landscape. To meet their annual production targets, companies may maintain facility utilization rates at a high level of 65%–70%, resulting in a slight increase in supply pressure. 3. Cost side: After fluctuating at high levels, coal prices may see some easing. With the end of autumn heating-season stockpiling and weaker demand, coal prices are expected to fall by 5%–10%. Crude oil prices remain uncertain due to global economic forecasts at year-end; institutions such as Goldman Sachs predict that Brent crude oil prices could drop to the $55–60 per barrel range in the fourth quarter, thus weakening cost support. 4. Inventory and funding: Under pressure to recover funds at year-end, traders may lower prices and sell off inventory. Coupled with weak demand, fourth-quarter inventory accumulation is expected to reach 120,000–180,000 tons, potentially triggering a temporary buildup of inventories and putting downward pressure on prices.