August 10 news
Today, many major companies in the Chinese phenol market have lowered their factory prices, with the adjustment ranging from 150 to 200 CNY per ton. Based on mean difference analysis, the current phenol price is in a fluctuating trend, with the mean difference signal indicating a weak rebound (bearish). In terms of price position, it is at the midpoint over a 1-year cycle, and at a mid-high level for both the 60-day and 3-month cycles, limiting the upside potential. The short-term trend is clearly characterized by fluctuation with a bearish bias.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
Difference Type Today's Value Yesterday's Value Direction of Change
5-day average difference (D5) -64.50 -130.00 +
10-day average difference (D10) -77.75 -13.75 -
20-day average difference (D20) 140.50 160.00 -
II. Signal State Determination
The current combination of mean difference change directions is (+, -, -), corresponding to a weak rebound (bearish) signal.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The price trend is oscillating. Reason: The change directions of the three moving average differences (5-day, 10-day, and 20-day) are not entirely consistent with the previous day, meeting the criteria for an oscillating market; combined with the signal characteristics, it overall presents a weak rebound and slightly bearish oscillating pattern.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
60-day cycle price position: mid-high, with limited upside potential.
Price position for the 3-month cycle: Mid-to-high range, with limited room for further increases.
1 year cycle price position: median, with relatively balanced oscillation space
Overall, the current price is in the transition zone from a mid-high level to a mid level, with limited short-term upside potential and some room for downward fluctuation and adjustment.
Five, Display of Trend Chart
VI. Supplementary Market Updates
Today, several companies in China including Shandong Fuyu Petrochemical, Sinopec North China, Sino-Saudi Tianjin Petrochemical, and Lihuayi Weiyuan have reduced the factory price of phenol by 150-200 CNY per ton. All facilities are operating normally, shipping according to plan, with inventory at a moderate level.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
