August 13 news
Today, the phenol market price in China continues to decline. Major domestic producers have reduced their factory prices, and the spread indicators clearly signal a downward trend. The price is currently at the mid-level over a 1-year period and at a relatively high level in the short to medium term. It will be crucial to closely monitor the supply and demand dynamics as well as the operational status of facilities along the industry chain.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value | Yesterday's Value | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | -34.5 | -7.5 | - |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | -135.25 | -131.25 | - |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 102.25 | 124 | - |
II. Signal State Determination
Three differences all changed in the same negative direction compared to the previous day, which is a clear signal of a decline.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The price trend is clearly downward. Reason: The 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages all showed a decline compared to yesterday (with negative directional changes), which aligns with the rule in the moving average difference method: "If all three are negative, the price trend is clearly downward."
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
1 year cycle price position: median, with relatively balanced room for increase and decrease;
Price position for the 60-day/3-month cycle: Mid-to-high range; short-term upside potential is limited, while downside has some room to unfold.
Five, Trend Chart Display
Six, Supplementary Market Dynamics
Today, the prices of phenol from major manufacturers in China have been reduced across the board:
Sinopec North China and Sino-Saudi Tianjin Petrochemical have reduced their listed prices by 200 CNY per ton, with the new price at 8,300 CNY per ton for cash on delivery self-pickup.
Shandong Fuyu Petrochemical has reduced the price by 50 CNY per ton, now at 8,300 CNY per ton.
Lihua Yiyuan lowers its price by 50 CNY/ton, effective at 8,400 CNY/ton;
China BlueStar Harbin Petrochemical has reduced the price by 150 CNY/ton, and the new price is 8900 CNY/ton.
All manufacturers' facilities in China are operating normally, with inventories at reasonable levels and shipments being made as planned.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
