August 14th News
On August 13, 2026, the price of propylene oxide in China showed an overall fluctuating trend. In the short term, the market exhibited a stagnation and bearish pattern, with divergent trends in the average differences across various periods. The 5-day and 20-day average differences slightly recovered and increased, while the 10-day average difference weakened and declined. The price positions across different cycles showed clear divergence, with long-term prices at a medium-low level and limited downward space, and short-term prices at a medium-high level with restricted upward momentum. The market is likely to maintain a bearish fluctuation trend going forward, and it is important to closely monitor market sentiment and changes in supply and demand upstream and downstream for potential breakthroughs in the trend.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
This statistical analysis focuses on the key cycle differences of propylene oxide over 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day periods in China, comparing the values with those from yesterday to outline the magnitude and direction of changes. The specific data is as follows:
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value (2026-08-13) | Yesterday's Value (2026-08-12) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Average Difference (D5) | -200 | -226.67 | + (Recovery and Rebound) |
| 10-Day Average Difference (D10) | -96.66 | -16.67 | - (Continued Weakness) |
| 20-Day Average Difference (D20) | -8.34 | -28.33 | + (Slight Increase) |
II. Signal State Determination
Based on the changes in the average deviation across different cycles, the current combination of average deviation trends is (+, -, +). The multi-cycle average deviation patterns show clear divergence, with no unified upward or downward trend. This triggers a stagflation warning signal, and the overall market sentiment is leaning bearish.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The current core trend of propylene oxide prices in China is a range-bound market. The key basis for this judgment is that the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving average differences do not fully align, perfectly fitting the criteria for a range-bound market. Additionally, combining the signals from the moving average differences, the current market is not in a one-sided uptrend or downtrend, but rather in a stagnant and slightly bearish range-bound state, with insufficient upward momentum and a short-term weak range-bound characteristic becoming more prominent.
IV. Price, Location, and Spatial Reference
From different time period dimensions, the price movement space is analyzed, showing a clear divergence between long and short cycles:
1. Long-term cycle (1 year): The current price is in the mid-to-low range, and the risk of a prolonged decline has been largely priced in. There is relatively limited room for further downward movement going forward, and overall support at the bottom is strong.
2. Short-term cycle (60 days/3 months): The current price is in the mid-to-high range, and there is significant resistance to short-term price increases, severely limiting upward potential and making it difficult for the price to sustain a one-sided upward trend.
V. Reference Chart Patterns
Six. Risk Warning
This report's data analysis, trend predictions, and market conclusions are for reference only and are based solely on the collation and interpretation of technical indicator data. They do not constitute any market trading advice. The price trend of propylene oxide is influenced by multiple factors such as supply and demand, fluctuations in raw materials, industry policies, and market sentiment. The market is uncertain, and investors and practitioners need to make their own judgments and decisions prudently based on the actual market conditions in China.
