August 18 news
Today, the average difference indicator for ammonium sulfate clearly signals a decline, with major Chinese producers collectively lowering their quotations. The current price is at the low end of the 1-year cycle, limiting the room for further decline. Subsequently, it will be necessary to closely monitor the supporting effect of demand-side changes, such as those in compound fertilizers and crop fertilizers.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Deviation Indicator | (2026.08.17) | (2026.08.16) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Deviation (D5) | -10.33 | -2.66 | - |
| 10-day Average Deviation (D10) | -13.34 | -12.01 | - |
| 20-day Average Deviation (D20) | 2.01 | 7.51 | - |
II. Signal Status Determination
The changes in the three moving averages (5-day, 10-day, and 20-day) are all negative and consistent with the previous day, indicating a clear downward trend.
Three, Conclusions on Trend Directions in China
The price trend is clearly downward, reasons: the changes in the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day averages compared to yesterday are all negative, which conforms to the rule in the average difference method that "if all three are negative → the price trend is clearly downward"; at the same time, the quotations for industrial-grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong have been adjusted downward, with actual market transactions mainly based on negotiations, and the spot market shows a clear downward trend.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
Ammonium sulfate 1-year cycle price is at a low level (within the lowest 20% range of the cycle). According to the 5-tier price position rule, a low range indicates limited downward potential. If subsequent demand for compound fertilizers and agricultural fertilizers in China improves, there is a potential for the market to stabilize and rebound.
Five, Display of Trend Chart
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
