October 21st, News
[Key Takeaway] As of the latest available data on October 20, 2026, China’s urea spot price has recently shown a rebound. Current market signals point to a strong, bullish correction, with prices generally trading in a volatile range. Over the medium and short term, prices remain at relatively low levels, leaving limited room for further declines. The following is a detailed analysis:
Data Validity Explanation
The latest available data is up to October 20, 2026. It is recommended to refer to real-time data.
I. Table of Finite Differences
| Mean Difference Indicator | (2026.10.20) | (2026.10.19) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Mean Difference (D5) | 8.5 | 4.5 | + |
| 10-Day Mean Difference (D10) | -7.25 | -11 | + |
| 20-Day Mean Difference (D20) | -19.25 | -18.5 | - |
II. Signal State Determination
The current deviation change combination is (+, +, -), which is a strong rebound (biased towards more, rebound nature) signal.
III. Conclusions on Trend Directions
The current urea price trend in China is fluctuating. Reason: The change directions of the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages compared to the previous day are not completely consistent, and do not meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend.
IV. Positional Space Reference
Urea prices are at a medium-low level for the 60-day and 3-month cycles, and at a medium level for the 1-year cycle. Overall, the downward space is limited.
Five, Trend Chart Display
On October 20, 2026, the latest ex‑factory quotation for granular urea from Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co., Ltd. was RMB 1,725 per ton, up RMB 20 per ton, with actual transactions subject to negotiation.
On October 19, 2026, the latest ex‑factory quotation for granular urea from Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co., Ltd. was RMB 1,705 per ton, with prices remaining stable and actual transactions subject to negotiation.
On October 16, 2026, Shandong Ruixing Chemical Co., Ltd. posted its latest ex‑factory price for urea at RMB 1,700 per ton, with prices remaining stable and actual transactions subject to negotiation.
VII. Industry Chain Reference
Upstream commodities: anthracite, liquid ammonia, liquefied natural gas
Downstream products: sodium bromide, tert-butylamine, propylene carbonate, sulfamic acid, late-season indica rice, early-season indica rice, compound fertilizer, aminourea, urea-formaldehyde resins, malonylurea, diacetylurea, acetylurea, triurea, biuret, melamine, wheat, corn
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
