The current price of heavy soda ash is at a low range for the 1-year, 3-month, and 60-day periods, with limited room for further decline; the mean difference indicator shows signs of short-term mean reversion, and the market has entered a strong consolidation phase under fluctuating conditions. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the supply of upstream raw materials and the release of downstream demand in China.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Today’s Value (2026-08-11) | Yesterday’s Value (2026-08-10) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 0.00 | 0.00 | Flat |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | -1.43 | -2.86 | Up |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | -23.93 | -25.64 | Up |
II. Signal State Determination
The current 10-day and 20-day average differences have increased compared to yesterday, while the 5-day average difference remains unchanged. The core logic is that the short-term average differences are being repaired, and the downward momentum is weakening, which aligns with the characteristics of a strong consolidation (bullish) signal.
III. Trend Direction Conclusions
The price trend is judged to be range-bound. Reason: The directions of the three mean differences compared to the previous day are not entirely consistent (5-day mean difference is flat, 10-day and 20-day mean differences are rising), which does not meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend. Therefore, it enters a range-bound market phase. The current strong consolidation signal indicates that the short-term price has support against declines.
IV. Spatial Reference
The price levels for heavy-grade soda ash—covering 60-day, 3-month, and 1-year cycles—are all at low levels. According to the logic of the five-level positioning system, low levels imply limited downside potential. Should downstream demand show marginal improvement in the future, there is potential for prices to rebound and recover.
5. Trend Chart Display
Six, Reference of the Industrial Chain in China
- Upstream related products: industrial salt, raw salt
- Downstream related products: Compound alkali, anhydrous sodium acetate, baking soda, anhydrous calcium chloride, trihydrate sodium acetate, sodium bromide, sodium bisulfite, sodium fluoride, sodium nitrate, sodium hexametaphosphate, sodium tripolyphosphate, sodium nitrite, sodium hypochlorite, sodium metabisulfite, bromine, xylitol, aluminum oxide, disodium hydrogen phosphate, trisodium phosphate, cryolite, baking soda, water glass, glass, borax
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
