August 21 news
【Daily Report on Short-Term Ethanol Price Trends】Key Insights: The mean deviation indicator suggests that ethanol prices are in a volatile, slightly bullish range. Although some manufacturers have recently lowered their quotes, the mean deviation is showing strong rebound signals. The 60-day and 3-month cycles remain at low levels, limiting downside room; meanwhile, the median of the 1-year cycle provides upward elasticity. While some plants have completed maintenance and resumed production, transactions at the end-user level are primarily driven by rigid demand. As a result, ethanol prices are expected to find support for a short-term rebound.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Value on 2026-08-20 | Value on 2026-08-19 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | -4.22 | -5.66 | + |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | -7.34 | -10.78 | + |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | -23.94 | -22.06 | - |
II. Signal State Determination
The three mean differences changed in the same direction as the previous day—(+, +, -)—indicating a strong rebound signal (leaning toward bullish, with rebound characteristics).
III. Trend Direction Conclusions
The short-term trend for ethanol prices is volatile (with a bullish bias). Reason: The 5-day and 10-day mean differences have narrowed negatively compared to yesterday (the direction of change is positive), while the 20-day mean difference has widened negatively compared to yesterday (the direction of change is negative). The directions of these changes are not entirely consistent, which fits the criteria for a volatile market according to the mean difference method. The signal combination indicates a strong rebound with a bullish bias, and given that the 60-day and 3-month price levels are at a low, the downside is limited. Therefore, there is support for a short-term price rebound.
IV. Spatial Reference
60-day cycle price position: low, with limited downside space;
Price position in the 3-month cycle: at a low level, with strong resistance to further declines;
1-year cycle price position: median, with some potential for increase.
5. Trend Chart Display
6. Market Dynamics
1. Manufacturer price adjustments: On August 20, 2026, the price of standard grade ethanol from Xinrui Group in Guan County was reduced by 50 CNY/ton to 5,350 CNY/ton, and the price of premium grade ethanol is 5,400 CNY/ton; the price of standard grade ethanol from Guannan Xinguan Distillery is 5,570 CNY/ton, and the price of premium grade ethanol is 5,620 CNY/ton, a decrease of 10 CNY/ton from August 17; on August 18, the price of standard grade corn ethanol in Jilin region decreased by 50 CNY/ton to 5,100-5,170 CNY/ton, and the price of standard grade ethanol in Heilongjiang region decreased by 50 CNY/ton to 4,950-5,100 CNY/ton; on August 17, the price of premium grade ethanol from Henan Hanyong was reduced by 20 CNY/ton to 5,380 CNY/ton.
2、Plant Maintenance Updates: The 80,000-ton fermentation ethanol unit at Chifeng Ruiyang completed maintenance from June 18 to August 10; the 300,000-ton unit at Hongzhan Huinan and the 600,000-ton unit at Jixian were under maintenance from August 10-15; the 250,000-ton coal-to-ethanol unit at Xinjiang Tianye was under maintenance in mid-August; the 500,000-ton unit at Jilin Fukang completed maintenance from July 10 to August 8.
3. Market Transaction Situation: Xinhui Group in Guan County has completed transactions for ethanol based on rigid demand. The ethanol markets in Hebei, Henan, and Jilin provinces are operating weakly, with the end-users mainly engaging in rigid demand procurement.
7. Reference for Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain
Upstream commodities: Methyl acetate, cassava, methyl acetate, molasses, wheat, corn, ethylene;
Downstream Products: Methyl ethyl carbonate, composite carbon source, ethyl formate, ethyl methacrylate, isophorone, triethylamine, ethyl acrylate, ethyl acetate, ethylamine, ethanol gasoline, liquor, acetaldehyde.
8. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
