October 23rd, according to news
According to the commodity market analysis system, the price of ethanol in China has been adjusted to 5711 CNY per ton, with a price increase of 1.87% after the National Day holiday, and a year-on-year increase of 4.46%. Ethanol in China shows characteristics of regional differentiation, cost improvement, and a slight weakening in supply and demand. The introduction of new corn in Northeast China has driven down raw material costs, but local corn ethanol prices have risen against the trend, significantly improving corporate profitability.
Cost Perspective, from the cost side, there is a noticeable easing in raw material costs. As new grain from the northeast of China gradually enters the market, deep processing enterprises are under profit pressure and are cautious about purchasing, continuously lowering their purchase prices; in North China, with the mid-to-later stage of new grain entering the market, the volume of arrivals has peaked and then declined, with purchase prices first showing a slight rebound and then facing pressure to adjust downward. After continuous price reductions, farmers' reluctance to sell has increased, limiting the potential for further significant declines. The impact on ethanol costs is mixed.
Supply side, from the supply perspective, the industry's weekly capacity utilization rate dropped to 49.55%, a decrease of 1.00 percentage points from the previous period. Among these, the Northwest region increased by 6.41 percentage points, while the East China region decreased by 5.65 percentage points. The total capacity involved in maintenance this period is 2.3 million tons, with facilities such as Heilongjiang Shenglong and Shandong Hengxin shutting down during the period. The impact on ethanol supply is mixed.
Demand Side: On the downstream front, ethyl acetate operating rates have risen sharply by 5.17 percentage points, with Henan Ruibai’s plant resuming production and downstream players actively replenishing inventories after the holiday. Meanwhile, methyl ethyl carbonate capacity utilization has fallen to 31%, as plants have either shut down or reduced output. Overall, supply remains below demand. Ethanol demand is being supported by favorable factors.
Market Outlook: Chemical demand is improving, and the increase in demand for liquor is providing support. However, rising transportation costs and increased supply (due to the restart of some coal-to-ethanol plants and the resumption of operations at Xinjiang Tianye) are putting pressure on the market. Factories may reduce their profits to cover logistics costs and stabilize shipments. Ethanol analysts expect that the ethanol market will mainly experience fluctuating and consolidating trends.
