August 21 news
【BDO (1,4-Butanediol) Price Short-Term Trend Analysis Daily Report】Key Insights: The mean deviation indicator suggests that BDO prices are in a volatile yet bullish range. Recently, spot prices for bulk shipments in East China and South China have risen for three consecutive days. Anticipated plant maintenance activities are providing support to the market. While the 60-day cycle remains at a high level, capping upward potential, the 3-month cycle’s lower levels offer room for price increases. In the short term, prices are expected to maintain a strong, consolidating trend.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Value on 2026-08-20 | Value on 2026-08-19 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 33.33 | 40.00 | - |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 33.33 | 21.67 | + |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 16.67 | 10.84 | + |
II. Signal State Determination
The three differences compared to the previous day changed in the direction of (-, +, +), which is a signal of strong consolidation (biased towards bullish).
III. Trend Direction Conclusions
The short-term price trend for BDO is fluctuating (leaning bullish). Reason: The 5-day moving average difference narrowed compared to yesterday (with a negative direction of change), while the 10-day and 20-day moving average differences widened compared to yesterday (with a positive direction of change). Since the directions of change among these three averages are not entirely consistent, this aligns with the oscillating market pattern criteria under the moving average difference method. The signal combination indicates strong consolidation leaning bullish. Additionally, from August 17 to 20, the center of gravity in China’s BDO market has continuously shifted upward; spot prices in East China and South China have cumulatively increased by 50–100 CNY/ton. Furthermore, the Shaanxi Black Cat plant is scheduled for a 45-day maintenance shutdown in late August, providing support for supply expectations. As a result, short-term prices are expected to remain in a strong consolidation phase.
4. Location and Spatial Reference
60-day cycle price position: high, with limited upside potential;
Price position over a 3-month cycle: Mid-to-low range, with some upward elasticity;
1-year price range: Median, with relatively balanced upside and downside potential.
5. Trend Chart Display
6. Market Dynamics
Price Trend: From August 17-20, the BDO market in China continued to strengthen. The bulk water price in East China increased from 7,800-7,950 CNY/ton to 7,900-8,000 CNY/ton, and the bulk water price in South China increased from 7,900-8,050 CNY/ton to 8,000-8,100 CNY/ton.
Plant Dynamics: A 70,000-ton BDO plant in Xinjiang Xinye’s Phase II temporarily shut down on August 11; the restart date remains undetermined. Shaanxi Heimao’s 60,000-ton/year BDO plant is scheduled for a 45-day maintenance shutdown in late August.
Shipment Status: Xinjiang Xinye has no spot quotations available; shipments are primarily based on contracts. The focus of spot negotiations in the East China and South China regions continues to shift upward.
Seven, Reference to Upstream and Downstream of the Industrial Chain
Upstream commodities: hydrogen, maleic anhydride, calcium carbide, formaldehyde;
Downstream products: PBAT, polyvinylpyrrolidone, N-methylpyrrolidone, polytetramethylene glycol ether, copolyester ether, TPEE, PBS, PU (polyurethane slurry), PTMEG, gamma-butyrolactone, tetrahydrofuran, PBT.
Eight, Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
