August 21 news
According to the commodity market analysis system, from August 14 to 21, the price of BDO in China increased from 7,783 CNY/ton to 7,900 CNY/ton, rising by 1.50% during the period, up 1.94% month-over-month, and up 2.41% year-over-year. There were many fluctuations in BDO facilities, and transportation in the Xinjiang region was slower, leading to a tight supply of goods in the market. The raw material prices remained firm, with significant cost pressure, and suppliers are expected to tighten their policies in September to support the market. Downstream demand was relatively stable, driving the upward trend in the BDO market in China.
Supply side, in terms of facilities, although a new 70,000-ton facility has restarted, the Shaanxi Heimao facility has shut down for major maintenance, and some facilities remain shut down, with the industry's capacity utilization rate dropping below 50%. Additionally, transportation in the Xinjiang region has not fully recovered, resulting in a moderate supply of goods within the market. Some factories have reduced their contract volumes, and the favorable conditions for the supply side continue. The BDO supply side is influenced by these positive factors.
Statistical Summary of Operating Conditions for Some Manufacturing Plants:
| Region | Unit Status |
|---|---|
| Shaanxi Shanhua | Unit 1 shut down in early August 2024; Unit 2 shut down on February 22, 2025; restart date yet to be determined |
| Xinjiang Meike | Unit 3 shut down; Units 1, 2, 4, and 5 operating steadily |
| Inner Mongolia Sanwei | 300,000-ton/year BDO unit currently operating at around 70-80% capacity |
| Xinjiang Guotai Xinhua | One unit operating steadily; another unit temporarily shut down due to boiler issues, expected to resume operations by end of August |
| Xinjiang Xinye | Unit 1—60,000 tons and Unit 2—70,000+70,000 tons BDO units operating steadily |
| Ningxia Wuheng Chemical | Unit 2—140,000-ton unit scheduled for a 15-day maintenance shutdown starting mid-August |
| Sichuan Tianhua | Unit 1—25,000 tons/year and Unit 2—60,000 tons units operating steadily |
Cost Perspective: Regarding calcium carbide, prices are on the rise. In Inner Mongolia, the intensity of orderly power consumption management continues to increase, imposing sustained constraints on calcium carbide production and heightening supply-side instability, thus driving an overall tightening of market supply. As for methanol, prices have been rising strongly. With both raw materials—calcium carbide and methanol—showing upward trends, the cost outlook for BDO is favorably influenced.
Demand Side: On the downstream side, demand remains relatively stable. However, under cost pressures, companies are maintaining contract orders and continuing to procure through existing agreements. Spot market transactions for small, immediate-need orders remain slightly elevated, and the overall market trend is characterized by volatile upward movement. The demand side for BDO is influenced by relatively positive factors.
Future Market Forecast: There are no significant fluctuations in the facilities, and the supply of goods is relatively tight, supporting the suppliers' firm market sentiment, with spot quotations at a higher end. Downstream demand is relatively stable, and the fundamentals provide decent support. Overall, BDO analysts predict that the favorable supply and demand dynamics will persist, and the BDO market will continue to rise.
