August 24 news
August 24, 2026—Key Insights on Caustic Soda: In the short term, caustic soda prices are at the lower end of the cyclical range. The mean-reversion indicator suggests a predominantly bullish and volatile pattern with limited downside potential. Should downstream demand pick up or supply conditions tighten, there is potential for prices to rebound and recover. Below is a detailed analysis:
1. Mean Difference Change Table
2. Signal Status Judgment
The current situation is in a state of fluctuation - resistance to decline warning (leaning towards bullish), because the 5-day and 10-day average differences have not changed from yesterday, while the 20-day average difference has improved (narrowing from -0.70 to -0.60). The changes in these three are not entirely consistent, and the long-term average difference shows an improving trend. Combined with the characteristic of low prices, this aligns with the logic of a resistance to decline warning that leans towards being bullish.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
Oscillation (with a bullish bias), the reasons are as follows: From the perspective of the average difference indicators, the change directions of the three average differences are not entirely consistent (the 5-day and 10-day average differences remain unchanged, while the 20-day average difference narrowed compared to the previous day), which does not meet the criteria for a clear trend, thus it is judged as oscillation; Supporting supply and demand data show: Recently, major manufacturers such as Shandong Xinfax and Luxi Chemical have raised the quotes for liquid alkali multiple times; The inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 4.31% month-over-month, and the export volume of liquid alkali in July increased by 5.3% month-over-month, indicating some fundamental support. Coupled with the recovery of the 20-day average difference and prices being at a low point in the cycle, the overall characteristic is an oscillation with a tendency to resist declines and a bullish bias.
4. Position Space Reference
The 1-year cycle price is in the first tier (low level), with limited downside potential; the 3-month cycle is in the second tier (mid-to-low level); and the 60-day cycle is in the first tier (low level). Overall, the price is currently in a relatively low range within these cycles, limiting further downside. If downstream demand continues to pick up or supply-side constraints intensify further, there is potential for prices to rebound and recover.
5. Trend chart display
6. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
