July 3rd News
According to the commodity market analysis system, from June 29 to July 3, the price of MTBE fell from 5,237 CNY/ton to 5,100 CNY/ton, with a price decrease of 2.63% within the period, a month-on-month decrease of 17.44%, and a year-on-year decrease of 1.83%. The weakening of international crude oil prices, coupled with weak demand for gasoline, hindered the sales of MTBE manufacturers in China, leading them to offer discounts to boost sales. As a result, the transaction center of the MTBE market in China slightly declined.
MTBE China production price average trend chart:
Cost Perspective: Regarding crude oil, international oil prices have declined. The primary negative factors are: the agreement between the U.S. and Iran to continue deepening negotiations, coupled with a significant improvement in shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which is helping to narrow the supply gap and weaken the geopolitical tensions' support for oil prices. As of July 2, the settlement price for the September Brent crude oil futures contract was $71.80 per barrel.
Demand Side: On the downstream side, international crude oil prices continue to remain weak, and refined oil prices have followed suit, with refineries frequently cutting prices and launching promotional sales. However, at this stage, terminal demand is insufficient, social inventories are being digested slowly, and intermediaries are cautious about locking in prices and placing orders. Downstream users generally maintain medium- to low-level inventories and adopt a wait-and-see approach to procurement and sales, resulting in market transactions largely driven by immediate, essential needs. The demand for MTBE is being weighed down by predominantly bearish factors.
Supply side: A new material plant in China will undergo maintenance, and there may be a shutdown plan for the Dechen Energy facility, leading to a potential reduction in resource supply. The MTBE supply side is influenced by positive factors.
As of July 3, statistics on MTBE factory prices from selected manufacturers:
| Enterprise | Unit | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Chengtai Chemical | 200,000 tons/year isomerization unit shut down | 5,100 CNY/ton |
| Shida Shenghua | 200,000 tons/year isomerization unit operating steadily, normal shipments | 5,100 CNY/ton |
| Shenchi Chemical | 400,000 tons/year mixed alkane dehydrogenation plant co-producing 350,000 tons of MTBE | No quotation available for now |
| Lihua Yi | Isomerization and isobutane dehydrogenation units operating normally | 5,100 CNY/ton |
| Dongming Petrochemical | 350,000 tons/year mixed alkane dehydrogenation unit operating steadily, producing 1,000 tons per day | 5,100 CNY/ton |
As of the close on July 2, the Asian MTBE market closed at a price that was up $2.69 per ton from the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore prices ranging from $786.07 to $788.07 per ton. The European MTBE market closed at a price that was up $21 per ton from the previous trading day, with FOB ARA prices ranging from $1,047.99 to $1,048.49 per ton. The U.S. MTBE market closed at a price that was down $9.88 per ton from the previous trading day, with FOB Gulf offshore prices ranging from $1,143.27 to $1,143.63 per ton (322.81 to 322.91 cents per gallon).
| Region | Country | Closing Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | FOB Singapore | USD 786.07–788.07 per ton | USD 2.69 per ton |
| Europe | FOB ARA | USD 1047.99–1048.49 per ton | USD 21 per ton |
| United States | FOB Gulf | USD 1143.27–1143.63 per ton | =USD 9.88 per ton |
Market Outlook: Raw material prices are rising—particularly the price of domestically produced isobutane, which remains high, putting significant cost pressure on the market. International oil prices have some room to decline slightly, and there are expectations that the retail price caps for refined oil products will be lowered in the next round. These market factors fail to provide any positive impetus for the oil market. Refineries continue to face downward pressure on oil prices. MTBE analysts believe that the MTBE market will likely remain weak and consolidate.
