August 27 news
[Key Insight]: In the short term, China’s spot ethanol market is experiencing volatile trading, signaling a warning of stagnation (bearish outlook). Overall, prices remain in a low-range with limited room for further declines. The market is being weighed down by increased import supply, making it difficult to see any significant upward movement in the near term.
1. Mean Difference Variation Table
| Mean Deviation Indicator | Today's Value (2026.08.26) | Yesterday's Value (2026.08.25) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| D5 (5-day Mean Deviation) | -6.67 | -10.67 | + |
| D10 (10-day Mean Deviation) | -7.77 | -6.77 | - |
| D20 (20-day Mean Deviation) | -18.89 | -19.62 | + |
2. Signal Status Judgment
Volatility (stagflation warning, bearish)
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The short-term price trend is volatile.
Reason: The changes in the three differences D5, D10, and D20 are not entirely consistent with the previous day, meeting the criteria for oscillation. The combination of signs is (+, -, +), which corresponds to a bearish signal indicating stagnation. Currently, increased import supply is putting downward pressure on prices, while plant maintenance is providing support. There is no clear trend-driven market movement at present.
4. Positional Spatial Reference
The 60-day cycle price of ethanol is at a low level, the 3-month cycle price is at a low level, and the 1-year cycle price is in the mid-low range. The overall downward space is limited, and if downstream demand picks up, there is room for a small price recovery.
5. Trend Chart Display
6. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
