September 30th news
I. Price Trends
According to the commodity analysis system, the caustic soda price in China this month has been consolidating. The average market price at the beginning of the month was 637 CNY per ton, and at the end of the month, it was 635 CNY per ton, a decrease of 0.31%, and a year-on-year decrease of 23.65% compared to last year. On September 29, the chlor-alkali index was 739 points, an increase of 5 points from the previous day, a decrease of 65.27% from the highest point of 2128 points (October 24, 2021), and an increase of 4.53% from the lowest point of 707 points on February 27, 2026. (Note: The period refers to December 1, 2011, to the present.)
2. Market Analysis
According to the commodity analysis system, the caustic soda prices in China have been consolidating this month. In Shandong, the mainstream market quotes for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda are around 580-670 CNY/ton. In Zhejiang, the caustic soda prices are stable, with 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda delivered to Xiaoshan at around 840-860 CNY/ton. In Inner Mongolia, the caustic soda prices are consolidating, with 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda quoted at around 1850-1950 CNY/ton (converted to 100%). The regional markets for liquid caustic soda in China have not shown much fluctuation, mostly maintaining a steady trend.
In October, China's chlor-alkali industry saw both maintenance and restarts, with the estimated average load for the month showing limited change from the previous month. However, supply continued to decline year-over-year. By the end of the month, most companies had completed their orders, and there were some attempts to raise prices, but these lacked strong demand support, leading to a narrow range of market consolidation. Some aluminum plants downstream replenished their inventory based on their own inventory levels, but alumina plants showed little interest in spot transactions, despite cautious pre-holiday stocking. Non-aluminum downstream demand remained weak, with most purchases made as needed, and no signs of improvement, putting pressure on the market.
Analysts note that, in the near term, caustic soda prices are trading in a consolidation range, with downstream alumina buyers remaining cautious. This has intensified short‑long positioning, while market sentiment continues to grow increasingly wait-and-see. Alumina prices remain on the weaker side, and the market remains stuck in a stalemate, with limited upside expected. Given the ongoing supply‑demand tug‑of‑war, caustic soda prices are likely to stay rangebound, with the exact trajectory contingent on downstream demand.
