September 11th, it was reported that
According to the latest spot data monitoring on September 10, 2026, the average spot price of urea was reported at 1812.5 CNY/ton. The mean difference indicator shows that the current trend is a strong consolidation (bullish) signal. The 60-day price cycle is at a high level, while the 3-month and 1-year cycles are at a mid-high level. The prices of upstream raw materials such as liquefied natural gas and liquid ammonia are strong, providing significant cost support. Downstream demand for autumn agricultural fertilizers and compound fertilizer production is gradually increasing. In the short term, the urea market is bullish, but there is considerable resistance to further upward movement at these high levels.
Urea Spot Market Analysis Daily Report (Data as of September 10, 2026)
The latest available data is up to September 10, 2026. It is recommended to refer to real-time data.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Indicator | (2026.09.10) | (2026.09.09) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 16.50 | 44.50 | - |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 39.75 | 31.50 | + |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 19.50 | 14.37 | + |
II. Signal Status Determination
The current mean difference change combination is (－, ＋, ＋), which belongs to a strong consolidation (biased towards bullish) type of oscillation signal.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The current price trend is oscillating with a bullish bias. Reason: The changes in the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving average differences from the previous day are not entirely consistent, which does not meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend, thus the trend is judged to be oscillating. Among these, the 10-day and 20-day moving average differences continue to rise, indicating strong support from the medium- and long-term moving averages, leading to an overall bullish bias.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
60-day cycle: The price is at the 5th level (high), with limited short-term upside potential;
3 months / 1 year cycle: The price is at the 4th level (moderately high), and there is still a reasonable operating space in the medium to long term.
V. Price Trend Chart for the Past Year
Six, Reference to the Industrial Chain in China
Upstream: The prices of anthracite, liquid ammonia, and liquefied natural gas have been consistently strong recently, providing strong support for the cost of urea in China.
Downstream: The demand for fertilizers for autumn wheat and corn planting is gradually being released, and industrial demand for compound fertilizers and melamine remains stable, providing some support to urea prices.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
