September 15th, news:
The current gasoline price trend shows a volatile yet bullish characteristic, with the average difference signal triggering a resistance to decline warning. Prices are in the high range of the nearly 1-year cycle, with limited room for further increases. Recent international crude oil price fluctuations and China's temporary control policies on refined oil products are the core factors influencing the market.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Indicator | Value as of Sep 14, 2026 | Value as of Sep 13, 2026 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day average difference (D5) | 2.57 | 123.46 | - |
| 10-day average difference (D10) | 220.27 | 190.34 | + |
| 20-day average difference (D20) | 291.76 | 302.80 | - |
Note: The latest available data currently dates back to September 14, 2026. It is recommended to refer to real-time data for the most up-to-date information.
II. Signal State Determination
The combination of changes in the three mean differences this time is (-, +, -), corresponding to an anti-decline warning (bullish) signal.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The current trend in gasoline prices is fluctuating. Reason: The change in the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day average differences from the previous day is not entirely consistent, and does not meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend, thus it is determined to be a fluctuating trend.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
Gasoline prices in China for the 60-day, 3-month, and 1-year periods are all in the 5th tier (the highest 20% range within the cycle), indicating limited room for further increases.
V. 1-Year Trend Chart Display
VI. Fundamental Reference
Upstream: Recently, international crude oil prices first surged sharply and then slightly declined. The escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict has supported high crude oil prices. On September 13, the United States called on Ukraine to cease its attacks on Russian diesel facilities, which to some extent eased concerns about refined oil supply.
Policy Update: On September 11, China’s refined oil price adjustment window opened. Following the adjustment, the actual increase in gasoline and diesel prices was RMB 260 and RMB 250 per ton, respectively—lower than the increase calculated under the mechanism. As of now, since 2026, retail prices of refined oil products have seen a cumulative total of twelve increases, five decreases, and one suspension.
Regional Market: On September 14, the quotations for 92# gasoline from independent refineries in Northeast and Northwest China were concentrated at 10,100-10,200 CNY/ton, while those for 95# gasoline were concentrated at 10,200-10,300 CNY/ton, with the quotations still in a high range.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
