Can Lithium Carbonate Continue to Rise in 2026?

December 25th, news

According to the commodity market analysis system, the price of lithium carbonate in 2025 showed a V-shaped trend. In the first half of the year, the price fell all the way to near the cost line, and in the second half, it bottomed out and rebounded, steadily increasing. Looking ahead to 2026, can lithium carbonate continue to break through and achieve new glories?

(1) 2025 Market Review

In the first half of the year, due to oversupply and continuous capacity expansion, coupled with slow demand growth and the impact of tariff policies, the price of lithium carbonate continued to decline, falling from 76,400 CNY/ton at the beginning of the year to 58,000 CNY/ton by the end of June, a decrease of 24%. In the second half of the year, there was a turnaround. First, the trade war eased, leading to a surge in export orders in the energy storage market. Second, the anti-competition policy in the new energy industry pointed to the elimination of outdated capacity. Finally, the supply shock caused by the shutdown of mines represented by CATL's Xianxiaowu led to a rapid increase in prices, which rose by 40% within two months. After the shutdown of Xianxiaowu was implemented, market sentiment subsided, and prices adjusted back to around 70,000 CNY/ton. Subsequently, in the third quarter, with a surge in energy storage orders, the entire lithium battery industry chain boomed, providing strong support for the price of lithium carbonate, which soared past 100,000 CNY/ton to reach its highest point of the year.

(2) Supply Side in 2026: High Growth Expected to Continue

2.1 China's lithium resource development continues to advance, with expected continued growth.

In 2025, China's new lithium carbonate capacity is about 260,000 tons. In 2026, China's new lithium carbonate capacity is expected to be 500,000-600,000 tons.

Salt lake end 2025 main new production capacity in China

The main new production capacity expected at the salt lake end in 2026

Lithium spodumene end main new production capacity in China in 2025

Major new lithium spodumene capacity additions in 2026

2025 Lithium Recovery: Main New Capacity Additions

In 2026, the additional lithium carbonate capacity from mica-based sources will primarily come from technological upgrades and capacity expansions at existing enterprises rather than from new projects.

2.2 Overseas new production capacity is mainly composed of low-cost projects, driving the integration of lithium carbonate towards lower costs.

In 2025, the additional overseas lithium carbonate capacity is approximately 197,000 tons, with South American salt lakes contributing about 76,000 tons, African lithium mines contributing about 98,000 tons, and Australian lithium mines contributing about 54,000 tons.

In 2025, Chinese enterprises will participate in investing in key overseas projects.

In 2026, newly added overseas lithium carbonate production capacity is expected to reach 300,000 to 350,000 tons, primarily from Africa (120,000 to 150,000 tons), South American salt lakes (70,000 to 100,000 tons), North America (30,000 to 40,000 tons), and Australia (50,000 to 60,000 tons).

Major Regional Projects

(3) 2026 Lithium Carbonate Demand: Rapid and Steady Growth in Energy Storage

3.1 Demand Growth for Power Batteries Slows in China

In 2025, under the influence of factors such as high penetration and high sales volume of new energy vehicles in China, as well as slow growth in overall car sales, the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales has slowed down.

From January to November 2025, China's total installed capacity of power batteries reached 671.5 GWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 42%.

In 2026, China's installed capacity of power batteries is expected to range between 680 and 800 GWh, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 15% to 25%.

3.2 Rapid Growth in Energy Storage Demand

In 2025, China's energy storage industry achieved a historic breakthrough, with both the volume of tenders and installed capacity setting new records. The total new installed capacity for the year reached 151 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 53%. In 2025, the tender volume for energy storage in China surged to 364 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 261%.

In 2026, newly installed capacity is expected to reach 194–265 GWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 30–60%.

3.3 Overseas Energy Storage Market Continues to Grow Rapidly

In 2025, the global energy storage market is expected to add 247 GWh of new installed capacity, representing a year-on-year increase of 23%. In 2026, new installations are forecast to reach 360 GWh, up 33% from the previous year.

(4) In 2025, China will see destocking, and in 2026, it may experience a tight balance.

In 2025, the Chinese lithium carbonate market exhibited a pattern of "surplus in the first half and shortage in the second half," with the overall supply and demand for the year being basically balanced or slightly short (-30,000 to +10,000 tons), and inventory continuously decreasing by about 20,000 to 50,000 tons. It is expected that in 2026, the market will further move toward a tighter supply-demand balance.

Supply-side forecast

Demand-side forecasting

(5) 2026 Price Outlook

Looking ahead to 2026, under conditions of high supply and a surge in demand, it is expected that China's lithium carbonate will further move towards a tight supply-demand balance, with the price center shifting to 100,000-150,000 CNY per ton.