The supply-demand contradiction persists—can the hydrogen peroxide market break through in 2026?

December 25th news

According to data monitoring: In the first eight months of 2025, the hydrogen peroxide market in China was mainly characterized by wide fluctuations, with prices ranging from 680 to 740 CNY/ton, and an overall price increase of 0.48%. Starting in September, hydrogen peroxide experienced a strong upward trend, surging for two months with a price increase of nearly 33%. After the significant rise, the hydrogen peroxide market saw a sharp decline, and by December 25th, the average market price had fallen to 776 CNY/ton, a decrease of over 16% compared to early November. For the entire year of 2025, the overall price of hydrogen peroxide in China increased by 10.95%.

The main reason for the limited increase in hydrogen peroxide prices in 2025 is the ample supply and weak terminal demand in China.

Supply Side: It is expected that the total new capacity for the year will be 4.85 million tons, but the commissioning progress is constrained by market conditions, resulting in a low operating rate in the industry.

Demand Side: The downstream caprolactam sector has been experiencing prolonged losses and unstable operating rates; the paper industry as a whole has performed moderately, resulting in subdued demand for hydrogen peroxide.

The supply-demand contradiction led to a lackluster peak season for hydrogen peroxide in China throughout 2025. The first eight months were mainly characterized by weak fluctuations. The significant price increase in September and October was mainly due to a temporary tightening of supply. From November to December, the market still lacked momentum for further increases, with prices mainly showing a weak downward trend.

How will the hydrogen peroxide market in China develop in 2026?

In 2026, the core contradictions in China's hydrogen peroxide industry will be difficult to change, and there will be insufficient momentum for a significant increase.

Short-term outlook: The current high price levels are unlikely to be sustained. As units that were shut down in December gradually resume production, and downstream caprolactam demand may decline after the New Year’s Day holiday, the market is likely to revert to a situation of oversupply, putting downward pressure on prices from their current high levels.

Medium- and Long-Term Challenges: Overcapacity. In the long term, the industry still has nearly 20 million tons of planned and under-construction capacity, making it difficult to reverse the trend of “supply exceeding demand” in the short term. Pressure for Process Upgrades: Currently, about 11.07 million tons of capacity in the industry still relies on outdated “acid-base fixed-bed” processes that need to be phased out, accounting for as much as 35% of total capacity. These facilities face pressure to either undergo technological upgrades or exit the market. However, simply retiring old equipment is insufficient to offset the massive increase in new capacity, making it extremely challenging for the industry to slim down.

Baseline Scenario

Supply and demand are growing moderately, with demand in the high-end sector offsetting some of the weakness in traditional industries. Cost pressures have eased, and the price range for industrial-grade hydrogen peroxide is fluctuating.

Optimistic Scenario

The demand for new energy and semiconductors exceeded expectations, coupled with intensified environmental policies stimulating water treatment demand. On the supply side, capacity optimization has accelerated, and the increase in industry concentration is driving up the price center, especially with a potential structural shortage of high-end products.

Pessimistic Scenario

Downward pressure on the global economy is intensifying, manufacturing demand remains weak, and new overcapacity has been added to the mix. Intense price competition is escalating, putting downward pressure on industrial-grade hydrogen peroxide prices and further squeezing industry profits.

The hydrogen peroxide analyst believes that, in 2026, the overall market conditions for hydrogen peroxide in China are likely to be better than in 2025. However, due to oversupply and a slowdown in demand growth, the hydrogen peroxide market will continue to experience significant price fluctuations, with the overall price range hovering around 700 to 1,000 CNY per ton.