In the first half of 2026, China-India trade in Western medicine maintained an overall sound development momentum. China’s exports of Western medicine to India totaled USD 3.53 billion, up 0.7% year on year, accounting for 77.2% of China’s total exports of medicines and health products to India. Western medicine continued to occupy an absolutely dominant position in bilateral pharmaceutical trade between the two countries. In the first half of the year, China’s trade surplus in Western medicine with India reached USD 3.04 billion, with export scale about 7.2 times the import value from India. China’s role as a ballast in the upstream pharmaceutical supply chain remains solid.
On the import side from India, China imported USD 490 million of Western medicine from India in the first half of the year, up 13.7% year on year, accounting for 72.1% of China’s total imports of medicines and health products from India. India’s cost-effective specialty generic drugs and finished formulations are accelerating their penetration into the Chinese market, effectively enriching the choices of clinical medication in China.
Western Medicine APIs and Intermediates
(I) Exports
As the core support of China-India trade in Western medicine, Western medicine APIs accounted for more than 90% of China’s total exports of Western medicine to India in the first half of 2026. Export volume grew significantly, but unit prices continued to decline, causing total value to remain flat.
Overall volume-price trend of API exports to India
| Indicator | 2024H1 | 2025H1 | 2026H1 | YoY change (2026/2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Export value (USD) | 3.076 billion | 3.224 billion | 3.225 billion | +0.03% |
| Export volume (kg) | 579 million | 623 million | 667 million | +7.06% |
| Unit price (USD/kg) | 5.31 | 5.17 | 4.83 | -6.56% |
1. Antibiotics: Under Pressure and Diverging; MIP Policy Accelerates Landscape Reshaping
Antibiotic APIs are an important category in China’s exports to India. From January to June 2026, overall export downward pressure was evident, with both volume and price weakening in tandem, while product differentiation was prominent.
Penicillins were squeezed by both India’s domestic capacity expansion and import control policies, and overall performance was sluggish. On January 29, 2026, India implemented a minimum import price (MIP, about RMB 260/kg) on penicillin core mother nuclei such as 6-APA, triggering a rebound and stabilization of domestic spot prices (from RMB 140–160/kg back to RMB 200–230/kg). However, the overall average price in the first half of the year was still lower than the same period last year, resulting in a “double decline in volume and price.” The unit price fell 25.50% year on year, and export value fell by more than 40%, making it the main factor dragging down the antibiotic segment. Other penicillins moved in close resonance with 6-APA.
By contrast, clavulanic acid and its salts, an indispensable raw material for compound anti-infective drugs such as amoxicillin-clavulanate potassium, showed relatively high market resilience. Although India set an MIP policy for this product as early as December 2025, due to strong downstream demand for compound formulations and the high technical barriers in clavulanate potassium fermentation and extraction, global major capacity is highly concentrated in China, and India currently has no effective local substitute source. In the first half of 2026, China’s export value and unit price of this product to India both achieved about 16% year-on-year growth (volume remained basically flat).
Selected varieties covered by India’s MIP and their performance (2026H1)
| Variety | MIP policy | Value YoY | Volume YoY | Unit price YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penicillin G potassium salt | Implemented from Jan 2026 to Jan 2027; CIF not lower than ₹2,216/kg (approx. USD 23.27/kg) | -56.3% | -35.1% | -32.7% |
| 6-APA (6-aminopenicillanic acid) | Implemented from Jan 2026 to Jan 2027; CIF not lower than ₹3,405/kg (approx. USD 35.75/kg) | -42.2% | -22.4% | -25.5% |
| Amoxicillin trihydrate | Implemented from Jan 2026 to Jan 2027; CIF not lower than ₹2,733/kg (approx. USD 28.70/kg) | -16.6% | +6.6% | -21.8% |
| Clavulanate potassium (and its derivatives) | Implemented from Dec 2025 to Nov 2026; CIF not lower than USD 180/KGA (activity equivalent) | +16.2% | Basically flat | +16.2% |
| ATS-8 (key intermediate for atorvastatin calcium synthesis) | Implemented from Dec 2025 to Nov 2026; CIF not lower than USD 111/kg | / | / | / |
Note: Special Economic Zones (SEZs), 100% export-oriented units (EOUs), and orders with advance authorization, if used solely for processing exports, may be exempt from MIP restrictions.
From the actual implementation of the MIP, because Indian buyers concentrated on stockpiling beforehand and were cautious about switching to local supply chains, the policy triggered a short-term inventory digestion period. It is expected that Indian procurement demand will be released again only after inventories are exhausted from late 2026 to early 2027.
Cephalosporins were also under overall pressure, but key cephalosporin intermediates such as 7-ACA and 7-ADCA bucked the trend with both volume and price rising; export volume increased 25.91% year on year, and unit price rose 2.21%. Among other varieties, tetracyclines and lincomycin saw stable demand in both veterinary and human-use fields; gentamicin rebounded from a low level, achieving both volume and price growth; traditional varieties such as streptomycin and kanamycin saw weakening demand; erythromycin had stable volume and price, showing relatively strong counter-cyclicality.
2. Vitamins: Intensified Competition, with Notable “Price-for-Volume” Characteristics
The vitamin category generally faced overcapacity and downward price pressure. Export volumes of vitamin E, vitamin B6, and vitamin AD3 doubled, but unit prices fell by nearly 50% year on year. Vitamin B2 and vitamin C also showed obvious volume-up, price-down trends. In comparison, vitamin B1 remained firm (volume -18.15%, unit price +4.51%). Vitamin A saw both volume and price decline (value -18.56%, volume -10.73%, unit price -8.78%), related to the fading positive effect of BASF’s capacity supply disruption in 2025.
3. Hormones: Demand Explosion Coexists with Fierce Price Competition
Hormones were one of the fastest-growing categories in China’s exports to India in the first half of 2026. Downstream applications cover formulation fields such as reproductive health, anti-inflammation, and immunomodulation. Overseas underlying demand has not visibly shrunk, making it a track with relatively strong industry resilience, but the contradiction of “rising volume without rising revenue” is prominent. Peptide hormones, driven by global demand for GLP-1 drugs, saw explosive export volume growth of 259.9% year on year. However, due to concentrated capacity expansion by domestic suppliers, price competition became fierce, and unit prices fell sharply by 74.49% year on year, ultimately causing export value to edge down 8.20%. In steroidal and corticosteroid hormones, progestogens and cortisone-type products both showed “volume surging, price plunging.” Only betamethasone, triamcinolone acetonide, fluticasone propionate, and other halogenated derivatives achieved both volume and price growth.
4. Amino Acids and Antipyretic-Analgesics: Traditional Bulk Products Weaken, Specialty Varieties Lead
Amino acids as a whole saw volume rise and prices fall, with internal differentiation as well. Monosodium glutamate saw both volume and price decline (volume -10.6%, unit price -7.3%); methionine benefited from released overseas breeding demand and tightened global supply, and leading Chinese enterprises, relying on stable high-quality capacity and supply chain advantages, achieved volume growth of 13.3% and unit price growth of 13.7%. Overall, amino acids are mainly used downstream in feed additives and food additives, with rigid demand support, but traditional bulk varieties faced obvious price pressure.
Exports of antipyretic-analgesics were sluggish. Paracetamol suffered a cliff-like decline due to large-scale local production in India, with export volume plunging 77.8% year on year, but unit price rose 23.3%. This may be because after the sharp volume contraction, remaining orders were mainly high-value-added varieties, passively pushing up unit prices. Ibuprofen saw both volume and price decline, with volume down 19.8% and unit price down 3.4%. Metamizole sodium export volume increased 39.6% year on year, while unit price fell 3.4%, maintaining relative stability.
5. Other Specialty Niche Varieties
For anti-AIDS and antiviral APIs, relying on global public health procurement projects, exports of nucleoside and non-nucleoside HIV compound APIs to India remained stable. In the artemisinin industry chain, artemether exports grew rapidly, but from a low base, mainly supplying antimalarial generic drug companies for international public health procurement. As a companion API for artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs), lumefantrine demand was stable, but procurement volume fluctuated, down 28.57% year on year, with unit price flat. In addition, procurement activity for dual-use food and pharmaceutical varieties such as sucralose, aspartame, and saccharin and its salts continued to increase.
(II) Imports
In the first half of 2026, China’s imports of Western medicine APIs and intermediates from India continued to grow, with import value of USD 430 million, up 11.5% year on year; import volume up 6.2% year on year; and average price up 5.0%, showing a sound pattern of simultaneous volume and price growth.
Heterocyclic and fine chemicals were the core category, about USD 210 million, accounting for nearly 50%. Among them, unlisted nitrogen-containing heterocyclic single products (possibly intermediates for complex small-molecule anticancer drugs, new-generation sartans, precursors for high-end specialty generics such as ticagrelor, etc.) reached USD 104 million in import value with both volume and price rising, reflecting the deep integration of China and India in the intermediate supply chain. Antibiotic imports were about USD 17.6 million, mainly erythromycin and cephalosporins, showing low-price penetration characteristics.
China maintained a surplus of about USD 2.8 billion with India in APIs and intermediates. China focuses on supplying fermentation-based bulk APIs and high-barrier intermediates to India, while India reversely supplies China with some specialty heterocyclic intermediates and low-cost erythromycin, forming a complementary model.
Western Medicine Formulations
China’s formulation exports to India are far smaller than its API exports. In the first half of the year, export value was USD 140 million, up 1.1% year on year; export volume grew 16.9%; and average price fell 13.5%, showing an obvious “price-for-volume” trend.
The product structure was clearly differentiated. Bulk mixed medicaments not put up in measured doses accounted for half of total formulation exports, and their downward trend directly affected overall formulation performance. Hormone formulations grew explosively. Export value surged 224.2% year on year, volume increased 525.6%, related to global GLP-1 drug enthusiasm, but unit price plunged 48.2%, with fierce price competition. Antibacterials generally showed “volume up, price down” characteristics. Among them, penicillin formulation export volume increased 20.7%, average price fell 40.7%, causing value to decline 28.4%.
On the import side from India, in the first half of the year China imported USD 70 million of Western medicine formulations from India, up 32.0% year on year. Imports were highly concentrated in unlisted medicaments put up in measured doses (78.7% share), and China ran a deficit in this category. Main imported products were small-molecule targeted anticancer drugs (such as gefitinib and lenalidomide), complex cardiovascular and chronic disease sustained/controlled-release formulations. Driven by domestic centralized procurement and clinical demand for high cost-effectiveness, this reflects the strong global competitiveness of India’s high-end generics. In addition, imports of alkaloid-containing drugs and hormone-containing drugs grew rapidly, becoming core engines driving import value growth: the former mainly consisted of anti-tumor alkaloid injections such as vincristine and irinotecan; the latter was highly concentrated in assisted reproduction hormones (such as gonadotropins), gynecological progestogens, and tumor endocrine therapy drugs, matching strong domestic demand in assisted reproduction and tumor endocrine treatment markets.
Biochemical Drugs
In the first half of 2026, China-India bilateral trade in biochemical drugs showed a trend of “rapid growth in China’s exports to India and contraction in imports from India.”
From the export perspective, in the first half of this year China exported USD 160 million of biochemical drugs to India, up 16.3% year on year. In terms of volume and price, exports overall showed “volume up, price slightly down”: export volume increased 22.2% year on year, while export unit price edged down 4.5% year on year.
By product segment, China’s exports of industrial enzyme preparations to India maintained stable growth. Enzymes and enzyme products accounted for 34.9% of total biochemical drug exports, with volume up 1.6% and unit price up 6.5%. India’s food processing, textile, and detergent industries continued to expand demand for enzyme preparations. India’s demand for plant proteins (such as soy protein isolate and pea protein) grew rapidly. In the first half of the year, China’s export value to India reached USD 29.25 million, up 68.6% year on year, and volume increased 76.8%. They are widely used in food additives, functional foods, feed additives, and other fields. India has a high proportion of vegetarians, and the plant protein market has broad space. Heparin and its salts accounted for 13.8% of biochemical drug export value in the first half of the year. Due to multiple factors including inventory destocking by overseas formulation giants, a high base in 2025, and the release of India’s local rough processing and purification capacity, they showed both volume and price declines. Although prices of this core variety remain under short-term pressure, with overseas inventory depletion and structural upgrading toward low-molecular-weight heparin, there is still support for stabilization later. Coenzyme Q10 export value in the first half of the year was USD 9.14 million, up 34.8% year on year, volume up 52.9%, but unit price down 11.8%. Demand for its application in India’s health products and pharmaceutical fields is growing rapidly, but a large influx of Chinese suppliers has intensified price competition. Immunological products, human vaccines, insulin, and others grew rapidly, but their absolute scale remains small.
On the import side from India, in the first half of 2026 China imported USD 2.247 million of biochemical drugs from India, down 16.0% year on year, with import scale contracting for two consecutive years. Imports were highly concentrated in enzymes and enzyme products (44.8% share), followed by peptones and their derivatives (26.1%), etc. Imports were mainly high-value-added biological products, but the overall scale is extremely small. China maintains an absolute surplus with India in the biochemical drug sector.
Summary and Outlook
Overall, in the first half of 2026, China-India Western medicine trade has entered a new stage of structural differentiation. First, the fundamentals remain solid. Despite pressure from Indian local substitution and capacity competition in low-end markets, the underlying logic of upstream complementarity between China and India in pharmaceuticals remains unchanged, and the Indian pharmaceutical industry’s dependence on China’s upstream key raw materials and high-barrier intermediates remains solid. Second, the contradiction of “rising volume without rising revenue” has become prominent. Homogeneous bulk APIs and popular tracks face severe overcapacity and fierce price wars, and a model relying solely on shipment volume expansion is unsustainable.
From the structural opportunities emerging for the future, intermediates with high synthesis/fermentation technical barriers and specialty APIs tailored to overseas high-end specialty generic pipelines—such as fermentation-barrier APIs represented by clavulanate potassium, which rely on production processes difficult to replicate quickly and still firmly hold pricing power under India’s import price cap policy—have strong risk resistance and bargaining power. Only by transforming from bulk capacity export to a product structure of high value-added products, CDMO, and products adapted to global public health needs can long-term competitiveness be maintained amid the evolution of the China-India bilateral trade landscape.
